Weekly Poker essay #1: Hand Reading

[tpir90036]

On a related note:

The problem I am having trying to transtion from limit to NL is that hands are shown down much more infrequently and it becomes harder to put people on ranges of hands if you are not sure what range of hands they might play a certain way. In limit you can start to figure out people's raising/cold-calling/re-raising/check-raising standards after a few orbits. Not so with NL.... this probably leads to laying down of more winners since calling down with a marginal hand is expensive and not usually an option. How do you compensate for not getting as much info in the way of showdowns. And what is SOP for a marginal hand that you would normally call down with in a limit game if you were unsure?

-tpir

[TheGrifter]

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In limit you can start to figure out people's raising/cold-calling/re-raising/check-raising standards after a few orbits. Not so with NL.... this probably leads to laying down of more winners since calling down with a marginal hand is expensive and not usually an option. How do you compensate for not getting as much info in the way of showdowns.

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You don't alway's need someone to show down a hand to know what they had. If you are observant then you can read into their fold to determine within a rough framework what they were playing.

For instance, if it is folded around to the button in a 6max game and he raises to 3xBB and then folds to a small bet on an AKJ flop then you can reasonably assume that his raising standards are light in that spot. (Obviously this would only be a shallow indicator but by observing his action on every hand you can begin to build a picture). In limit play people fold much less often (due to smaller bets) and you do not have that information available.

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And what is SOP for a marginal hand that you would normally call down with in a limit game if you were unsure?


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One of the big differences in low stakes nl vs. mid stakes nl is the tendency of players to underbet the pot. In many low stakes NL games people severly underbet the pot whether they have a hand or not, and wait until the river to make a move.

What you should do with a marginal hand depends heavily on how live you are drawing. If your hand is Ks8s on a Qh Js 8h board, then you should check call any small bets and hope to improve what is not likely currently the best hand. Your two pair outs combined with backdoor flush/straight outs allow you to continue, fold to any bet that is not laying you at least 6-1 or so.

However, if you hold Ac2c on an Ah Jd 6h board in the same situation (SB, 5-way). You should usually bet out 2/3 of the pot or so. Often in an unraised pot your ace will be good, so check/folding is not right. However, you also don't want to get yourself in trouble with no kicker and given the somewhat coordinated board a better ace will usually raise and allow you to get away from your hand on the flop.

[okayplayer]

I think some of the tells that you can use for online play are:
1) rapid checking on the flop. This is a likely indicator that most people have missed the flop. Likewise, if I see a LP bet when this happens, I may raise figuring he saw this same thing and may be trying to steal.
2) the length of time it takes for them to bet/call/raise. A longer bet/call I perceive as a drawing hand (sometimes kicker problems). Fairly quick bets/raises often times show strength.
3) min bets. These I see as weak, and trying to take down a flop with people having the check/fold button checked.

These were just some that I thought of...

[burningyen]

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In my experience (not on party) with that action you are up against AA/KK ovr 75% of the time....

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I would say that's true of UB, too.

[tpir90036]

I am not talking about reading into folds. In fact let's combine both of my points into one hand. Take the hand you just mentioned with the AKJ flop and say you have Axs. He raises before the flop and somehow you see the flop with him. He bets the pot and you fold.... you have no information about his range of raising/betting hands without calling him down. In a limit game against an aggro player you might call down in this spot...but this is not possible and raising is probably silly since if he pushes you can't call.

Also, why are all of your examples for 6-max games? And check-calling in that K8s example seems a little odd unless someone is severly underbetting the pot since you are drawing to a ton of non-nut hands that you can not confidently bet/raise with.

I am now more confused than I was before. I guess I should just stick to limit.

-tpir

[TheGrifter]

Tpir,

I used the K8s example specifically because I know many people would muck that hand to any bet, when clearly it should only be tossed if the odds are unfavorable. The thing is, people do severly underbet the pot. In a typical .5/1 Nl game you see 5-6 people to the flop unraised and it is not uncommon to see bets of 1 or 2 dollars at a time all the way to the river. If you wait for strong hands/draws then you are passing up a ton of profit opportunity.

In NL you have to decide if your hand is going to be good often enough to make a call. Since players are so transient it is often necessary to make an educated guess based on the average player at a given limit. When the flop comes Axx and you have an ace no kicker and your opponent leads into you for the pot, you have to determine if your hand is good often enough to continue. If you're in position you may call to find out what he does on the turn (if stacks are deep enough) many people will autobet the flop but far fewer will fire a second barrel.

You can pretty quickly recognize which players are aggressive vs. passive at a NL table. You can then use this information to put them on a range of hands. You can still call down against an aggressive player, but you should do so when you have good implied odds. If you have Axs and the flop is AKJ with one of your suit you would be more likely to look up an aggro player than when you have no draw.

[ChristophUoR]

The 32% is the pot odds. The other numbers refering to how often you'll be against various hands is their guess based on experience. If you don't know much about pot odds then buy Small Stakes Hold 'Em by Slansky.

Chris