Bet into again, a pretty common situation - Page 2

Spook · #11 10-31-2005, 03:51 PM

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Turn comes 5s.

Mp2 donkbets into me.

Now what?

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Now I'm folding. That 5 is a bad card, and the button could be slowplaying a 6, or has made a straight with the 5. You are only getting 7.5-1, and you could be drawing dead.

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But it is a flush draw card. Folding bad, calling good.

JinX11 · #12 10-31-2005, 03:52 PM

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Wow I f'd up big time. It's supposed to be a flop of 6s6c7h, so there is no club draw. Sorry guys....

But anyways...

So on the flop MP2 bets. I raise. Button cold calls. SB folds. MP2 calls.

Turn comes 5s.

Mp2 donkbets into me.

Now what?

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I think I'm letting it go now - I think you're most likely behind, drawing to 6 outs at best, and Button is yet to act. I think you're looking at a mid-pocket pair out of MP2 fairly often (maybe 88?); I don't like Button hanging out back there with the possibility of making me the meat in the sandwich after cold-calling two pre-flop and on the flop.

This feels like a fold to me.

Stealthy · #13 10-31-2005, 03:55 PM

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Wow I f'd up big time. It's supposed to be a flop of 6s6c7h, so there is no club draw. Sorry guys....

But anyways...

So on the flop MP2 bets. I raise. Button cold calls. SB folds. MP2 calls.

Turn comes 5s.

Mp2 donkbets into me.

Now what?

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The bet into you on the turn after you raised the flop + the buttons flop cold-call are both bad news for your hand. Time to give it up and fold, there is very real likelihood that you are now drawing dead.

ErrantNight · #14 10-31-2005, 04:03 PM

with the nut flush draw?

ErrantNight · #15 10-31-2005, 04:04 PM

now it's time to call.

JinX11 · #16 10-31-2005, 04:08 PM

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with the nut flush draw?

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Sorry - misread. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Easy call.

#17 10-31-2005, 04:10 PM

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with the nut flush draw?

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Sorry - misread. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Easy call.

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I think everyone misread it.

Perseus · #18 10-31-2005, 04:17 PM

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with the nut flush draw?

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Sorry - misread. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Easy call.

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I think everyone misread it.

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Yeah my question here was more to raise to clean up my overcard outs/isolate with the donk better or to call and fold unimproved.

Folding is obviously out of the question.

W. Deranged · #19 10-31-2005, 06:13 PM

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Things that are important:

1. The board is paired. This means there are fewer cards he could have which hit this board.

2. The board has low cards. Which means that he likely thinks you have very little, and also means he will be more confident in his small/medium pair.

3. The board is chock-full-'o'-draws. This means your opponent may well be betting a draw.

4. Your opponent does NOT likely have a very strong hand. If he flopped trips or a boat, he likely would have slowplayed. You almost certainly have 7.5 clean outs whenever you're behind, and maybe even are ahead some of the time.

So I approach this hand from the perspective that: I'm ahead of the donk-bettor some of the time, but probably not that far ahead, and I'm behind some of the time, but have 25-30% equity in those cases (against the pre-flop bettor).

Now, the problem is that there are players behind you. They may have weak draws, hands like KQ that might hit and limit your outs, or even possibly hands like AK or AQ that kill some of your outs. They often will have missed the flop too with big cards, but pretty much anything they have is something that I would prefer to hvae fold (particularly hands like KQ and 33).

So my conclusion: Raise the flop.

If it gets heads-up as desired, and villain doesn't three-bet the flop and checks the turn, I'm usually betting the turn and folding to a raise. My idea is that very often villain has a draw on the turn and my hand has a ton of showdown value against any draw; I'd prefer to put in a bet on the turn and take a free showdown than check, risk giving a free card, and have to maybe crying-call the river. Since I don't have outs against many hands that would check-raise the turn, I'm happy to fold to a raise. (The exception is if a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the turn; in that case, I'll bet and call a raise. I still like betting because now I have a ton of equity, and I'm still not that scared of a 6).

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The only thing that I would disagree with is that you say you have 7.5 outs when your behind. You're assuming that villain will never bet out with a 6 here. I think that this assumption is pretty safe but not 100%. Otherwise very good assesment. (It's a good assessment even with the assumption).

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Yeah... we should discount to 7 outs to account for the rare chance villain makes a creative donk with a monster and the times he has like A7 and we're reverse dominated. But I think it's a very small adjustment. Good catch, though.

W. Deranged · #20 10-31-2005, 06:16 PM

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now it's time to call.

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Yeah, I think so. We're going to be drawing the majority of the time here, in my opinion. The price of paying two bets when we really don't have that much show down value is annoying. Getting three-bet would make me hurl. Usually the player behind us won't just have overcards (and when he does we may have him dominated). I can't think of enough hands I'd specifically want him to fold to make me want to raise here.