the power of 72o, a thought experiment

[davet]

You are sitting at a 9 player table with a bunch of super-tight rocks. You know for certain that they will not limp in before the flop unless they are holding faces or aces. They will ditch all hands holding less than a jack.

They have a strange tendency that is very un-rock-like, they will not fold to any bets. They will never raise, and they will never bet themselves. There is no way to tell the strength of their hand.

You are sitting in the Big Blind holding the mighty 72o, and to your surprise, everyone limps in.

What do you plan to do here?

I know that this is an extreme example, but I want to read your thoughts on this before I state my own.

[Cooker]

I think you obviously check preflop since you have no chance to fold anyone, and one of them could very well be sitting there with AA or KK but you are a almost certainly a dog regardless of what you do. I would probably check down the whole hand since there is no threat of them betting you off a good hand (since they never bet) and since you are very unlikely to have the best hand. If I made trips or a straight, then I would start betting (actually, since they will all call, you are correct to bet any OESD you flop). I wouldn't bother betting top pair, but 2 pair is probably worth betting as well.

[crunchy1]

No offense - This is dumb.

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way to tell the strength of their hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given the parameters you've set forth in your example - I'd say it's quite easy to tell the strength of their hand.

[davet]

Sorry to take a while to respond.

But honestly, I was thinking about raising PF

And here is why.

I know that the flop will bring nothing but low cards, giving us a higher probability to flop two pair, full houses, and straight draws.

The math is my weak point in poker, but as I understand the equation: 49/50 x 48/49 x 47/48, this would imply your odds on a completely random and unknown sequence.

But since I know that all jacks and aces are now removed from the deck, I know certain cards come up far more frequently, right? So, how would this change the math?

I also take into consideration that there is no way for the opposition to improve, unless the board pairs(I may be dead), or the board comes down 3 or 4- to a flush (I am dead).

I think that I am winning far more than 10 percent of the time here.

In case you are wondering, this thought ezperiment came to me when I was thinking about a game spread in SoCal called Mexican poker. This is like five card stud, but all the 89Ts are taken out. In this game a flush beats a full house. Also, I have been talking alot to a card- counter and this also got this thinking started.

daveT

[BigBiceps]

It looks like you have about 15% equity in this "interesting" example. ....

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7s 2c 41930 15.07 234965 84.44 1361 0.49 0.151
As Js 19056 6.85 255244 91.73 3956 1.42 0.071
Ks Kc 128043 46.02 148852 53.49 1361 0.49 0.461
Qd Jd 23400 8.41 240211 86.33 14645 5.26 0.101
Qh Jh 23400 8.41 240211 86.33 14645 5.26 0.101
Qs Jc 30 0.01 263581 94.73 14645 5.26 0.017
Ad Kh 3023 1.09 271277 97.49 3956 1.42 0.014
Kd Ah 3023 1.09 271277 97.49 3956 1.42 0.014
Ac Qc 19111 6.87 255189 91.71 3956 1.42 0.072