WSOP - XRay Vision Winning Chances

[RocketManJames]

Let's talk about the 2005 WSOP Main Event.

If you were a parcipant in this event, and you were also allowed to see everyone's cards. What do you think your chances would be to actually win this thing?

Certainly, you couldn't always wait for a situation where your opponent was drawing dead. And, you'd have to avoid get ting sucked out on at key times, I would imagine.

What would the optimal strategy be for an X-Ray vision player? What kind of edge would you look for before committing your stack? Or, would you avoid all-ins altogether even when the odds are heavily in your favor? Say you have AA and you see that an opponent of yours who has you covered had AK and another opponent had KJ. Would that be enough for you to call the all-in? Or would you pass on this opportunity?

I'm ask this because I heard a quote from Raymer (I think) that said that even if you had the best player in the world play this over his entire lifetime, he might only win this event 2% of the time. Now, I'm not talking about the best player in the world... but what would arguably be the best player ever (one that could see all opponent cards). What would his winning chances be?

I'll throw out a guess... I'd say that the typical person with this X-Ray ability might be 3% to win. A person like Sklansky might have up to 30% or more. Can't back up those numbers in any way... just threw them out there to start the discussion.

-RMJ

[A_C_Slater]

3% to win!?

More like 100%

Why do you assume you would ever have a smaller stack then anyone else at your table and have to worry about calling an all in? You should always have at least the most chips at your table.


Here's a good example. You have A7o in the BB and the CO open raises with KJo folded to you and you call.

FLOP: 22Q


you check and call a standard continuation bet knowing you have the best hand. You can continue to call any bets unless a K or J hits. You would make so much money just from inducing bluffs.

You wouldn't have to wait for hands like AK versus AQ or such. Everytime someone raised with garbage stealing you could reraise with garbage and take the pot down preflop. Or you could just call and let them bet out all streets and fold if they hit.

Even if they do hit like middle pair or something and have you beat you can make a big raise with nothing and cause them to lay down everytime.

3%!?

Are you out of your mind?

[einbert]

Good question.

I think 30% for any player using this strategy is probably ridiculously high.

To make your way from 10k chips to 60M, you would be placed in some situation throughout the event where you would be forced to put all your money into the pot with less than a 90% edge (or else sacrifice simply far too great of chipEV) N times.

If we can come up with some approximation of N and some average for how much of an edge you will have each time, we can get some kind of percentage.

But 30% has to be way too high.
3% is probably a better starting point.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if they do hit like middle pair or something and have you beat you can make a big raise with nothing and cause them to lay down everytime.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can make them lay down every time? That's absurd.

[ QUOTE ]
Everytime someone raised with garbage stealing you could reraise with garbage and take the pot down preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you do when they come back over the top of you, you're a 3-2 or maybe even 3-1 or 4-1 favorite over their hand and their reraise is a significant portion of your stack?

Either you have to put all chips on the line with a 20% or whatever chance of going broke or sacrifice a ton of chipEV. You won't be able to win the tournament by never seeing a showdown, and you're not going to be able to get opponents all in drawing dead often enough to double your stack enough times to get it from 10K to 60,000K.

3% is probably too high.

[Wacken]

I would bet every hand where i am favorite. I would only go all-in or call all-in when i am 100% favorite.

I think winning chances would be well over 50%

[sully4321]

don't know about you guys, but i'd win if i could see other peoples' cards

we're talking every single hand, you know exactly what everybody is doing and from this information can determine exactly how to respond... think about it -- you pick up KK and somebody has AA you will know IMMEDIATELY... you dont even have to call the BB.

you also don't have to have any starting hand requirements because 1) you can always tell if you have the best hand 2) you never have to worry about being put in a 'what's his kicker?' situation.

i would be willing to bet that you could still win even if you folded every time someone put you all-in and you didnt have them drawing dead (which would only happen in the beginning, as you would be steadily increasing in chips from making perfect reads and stealing pots when other people have junk)

i would bet all the money i have on that person making the payout, and believe they would win at least 50% of the time, if not more -- barring any flaws in their play. sklansky, negreanu, ivey, hellmuth win 75% of the time.

Please find me the glasses and let me try. I would be 99% sure I would win.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even if they do hit like middle pair or something and have you beat you can make a big raise with nothing and cause them to lay down everytime.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can make them lay down every time? That's absurd.

[ QUOTE ]
Everytime someone raised with garbage stealing you could reraise with garbage and take the pot down preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you do when they come back over the top of you, you're a 3-2 or maybe even 3-1 or 4-1 favorite over their hand and their reraise is a significant portion of your stack?

Either you have to put all chips on the line with a 20% or whatever chance of going broke or sacrifice a ton of chipEV. You won't be able to win the tournament by never seeing a showdown, and you're not going to be able to get opponents all in drawing dead often enough to double your stack enough times to get it from 10K to 60,000K.

3% is probably too high.

[/ QUOTE ]


No they won't lay down everytime, but they don't have too. They just have to lay down most of the time with their marginal holdings. Why would you get involved in a hand where someone could cripple your stack?

Don't you understand that in the begginning of the tourney you would have a huge adavantage and likely amass a big stack early?


Another example: you have 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP and open limp (very rarely should you raise as there is no need to define or "protect" your hand because you'll know where you stand on the flop, not that I open raise with 22 from MP, but you understand.) Your stack 40,000 ; SB's stack 25,000

You SEE that the SB has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the others have garbage, so you are quite sure he will raise. Folded to SB who raises to 900 (blinds 150-300) BB folds, you call.

(2100)
FLOP: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


SB bets 1000 ..... Now normally you would have to fold a scary flop like this one with your pocket deuces. You have no heart and there are 3 overcards on the straight coordinated flop. You have no chance of going bust here because you managed to amass a big stack early with your "X-ray" advantage. You call knowing you have the best hand, whereas if you couldn't see his cards you would have to fold or "make a move" but if you make a move here and raise he will fold and deny you a chance to make anymore money. You don't need to protect a hand when you always know where you stand. It's like flopping the nuts and only having to worry about being counterfeited by another nut possibility hitting.


(4100)
TURN: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


SB checks, you check.

You probably can't make anymore on this scary board against SB's ace high. But if you bet he will surely fold and you might miss out on collecting a desperation bet on the river.


(4100)
RIVER: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]



SB bets 3000 with ace high. You raise to 6000 knowing that he won't call. You don't want to have to show this hand. If they see your hand they may start to suspect you have "X-ray vision" or are psychic.


SB folds and you collect a 7100 pot in a hand you would normally fold on the flop.


If an Ace, Ten, or King hit anywhere you would just fold, but players will miss the flop with their holdings more than they will hit and you will make mad money.

[baronzeus]

What if he pushes all in on the turn? You are about an 85% favorite here and should call, but obviously doing so would put your tournament life at risk.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
What if he pushes all in on the turn? You are about an 85% favorite here and should call, but obviously doing so would put your tournament life at risk.

[/ QUOTE ]


I would fold. But even if I did call my tourney life is not at risk because my stack is bigger. Most players don't overbet the pot by five times all in on a bluff. (He would be risking about 22000 to win a 4100 pot.)