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#1
06-01-2004, 04:44 PM
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How would you of played this?
NL100 6 handed at PP. im fairly new to table. on the button i get black JJ. 3 limpers to me, i raise to $15, all folded to UTG who calls. FLop is (3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). UTG then opens for $15, i put him all-in for $82. he calls. he turns over A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. he does not improve, i double up. im just interested how much of a favorite was I after the flop? he had many outs. how would you of played this?
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#2
06-01-2004, 05:16 PM
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Re: How would you of played this?
You were not a favorite after the flop.
The A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] was a 59.9% favorite over your jacks at 40.1% Consider yourself lucky, but I think you played it well. goto cardplayer.com for an odds calculator
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#3
06-01-2004, 06:00 PM
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Re: How would you of played this?
Hi pokerraja,
Here's an easy way to approximate win percentage at the table. (1) Count the live outs. For A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a flop of 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] his live outs are: any Ace (3), any 2 (4), any 5 (2), and any heart (8, as we already counted 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] with the dueces). That gives him 15 live outs. (2) Multiply Outs x Cards to Come x 2. He has 15 outs with two cards to come, thus 15 x 2 x 2 = 60%. (3) Subtract Redraws from Step #2. In this case, your only redraw against a made hand is to catch a Jack when he has caught a 5 (his trips fall to your full house) or an Ace (his two pair fall to your set). Any of his other outs leave you drawing dead. His Ace and 5 outs account for 5 x 2 x 2 = 20% of his 60% win percentage, and you will redraw 1/22nd (2 cards to hit from 44 remaining) of the time when he catches an Ace or 5. So you subtract 1/22nd (your set redraws) of 20% (his set or two-pair draws), or about 1% from the result in Step #2, leaving him 60% - 1% = 59% win percentage. While this method is not as exact as the poker calculators, the results will be close enough that you can't make a bad mistake at the table by following this method ... providing of course that you know (or have a good read on) the cards your opponent holds. Hope this helps, Cris
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#4
06-01-2004, 06:00 PM
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Re: How would you of played this?
whether the push the flop or fold is entirely player dependent imo. that said, i dont think theres many hands where him betting out he flop is the right play. if you flopped a set or slow played AA or whatever and thinks his hand is good he shoulda check raised, and if he didnt think it was good, should check fold or check raise. id see what kidn of player he is and try to think why he would strangely lead out here.
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#7
06-02-2004, 02:33 AM
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Re: How would you of played this?
If u think u were a favorite to win after the flop u should never play again. He's a good favorite. he has what 9 hearts 3 aces 2 5's and 3 non heart 4's or whatever it was to give him the straight. that's what 17 outs. I know with 14 outs he's a 54 to 46 favorite so add another 3 outs and he's got u even worse. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] u got pretty lucky
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