Devastating 30 BB hand

[MagicFlea]

alright... I can see that. when i folded I was so sure I totally goofed the turn by raising... then the river action came

CO calls, shows AJo, BB shows 92s and AJo takes $120

my hand was good the whole time! I know you shouldn't think about results, but this seems like the one situation where it should give you pause... folding a winning hand for one bet on the river in a huge pot is the most costly mistake in poker.

Still, with a little perspective I agree that the turn raise was incorrect...

[paperboyNC]

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alright... I can see that. when i folded I was so sure I totally goofed the turn by raising... then the river action came

CO calls, shows AJo, BB shows 92s and AJo takes $120

my hand was good the whole time! I know you shouldn't think about results, but this seems like the one situation where it should give you pause... folding a winning hand for one bet on the river in a huge pot is the most costly mistake in poker.

Still, with a little perspective I agree that the turn raise was incorrect...

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When my gf started playing limit poker, the two biggest pieces of advice I gave her were:

A) Try not to call the turn unless you can call the river. Whatever you do, don't fold on the river. Especially heads-up.

B) Play tight/aggressive pre-flop.

The problem with your hand was that with three opponents, your hand is practically never good.

[mack848]

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folding a winning hand for one bet on the river in a huge pot is the most costly mistake in poker.


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I don't agree.

Folding the winner here did not really cost you 30BB - more like 0.5BB.

The EV of calling, if you knew you had a 5% chance to win the hand (unlikely in this case) is (0.95 * -1.0) + (0.05 * 30) = 0.55BB.

In this hand, I think that you were likely to win this <2% of the time.

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Folding the winner here did not really cost you 30BB - more like 0.5BB.

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Isn't it more like calling with a loser costs you 1BB while folding a winner costs you 30BB?

[W. Deranged]

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Folding the winner here did not really cost you 30BB - more like 0.5BB.

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Isn't it more like calling with a loser costs you 1BB while folding a winner costs you 30BB?

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No!

I think I'm going to make a longer post about this because it's an idea that a lot of people miss out on... Look for that.

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Look forward to that.

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FYP [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Your posts are always extremely helpful.

[W. Deranged]

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Look forward to that.

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FYP [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Your posts are always extremely helpful.

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OMG [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]!

[damaniac]

Folding a winner only costs you 30BB if you would always win the pot by calling. In the actual hand, yes a bad call costs us 1BB and a bad fold costs us the pot. However, that is results-oriented thinking. We need to think of how often we are good when we call here in this type of situation (or better put, what the chances are of having the best hand). If that weren't so, you should always call in any pot bigger than 1BB if there is a chance your hand is best, since calling can only cost you 1BB but folding would cost you more. The % you are good is highly determinative of how big a mistake this is (along with the pot size).

Edit: I should say that if we are behind on an actual hand, that would be the result. I didnt't look/reread the hand in question before posting so I don't know if he won/lost. But even if you do lose this hand, folding is only a 30BB mistake if you would always be ahead. If the OP is considering folding, the odds are probably considerably lower.