Where Did I Go Wrong?

[adanthar]

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Down to 70. Average stack is 7K. Blinds are 100/200. I have ~10K in the BB with AQs.

Lagish MP open pushes allin for 2K. Table maniac/bully/big stack smooth calls from the button.

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OK. MP pushes. Since he's a LAG, he can probably do this with any pair even with a 10 BB stack...but that doesn't help you since you're behind those. AK-AQ push too, of course. AJ? KQ? Maybe, from a LAG. AT-A9, KJ? I think we're entering wishful thinking territory here unless he's more than just 'LAGish' (if he was a real donkey I would know it by now). I think you're about tied with a 'reasonable LAG's' range there, overall, maybe a little ahead since yours is suited.

Button coldcalls 1/5 of his stack. This is a real hand range (that you are also probably not very ahead of if not far behind to).

You will miss 2/3 of flops (more if some aces are out), are OOP, and there's a large chance that if you hit, the button won't pay you. Why are you in this hand?

(If you are determined to be here anyway, push PF)

[Rushmore]

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OK. MP pushes. Since he's a LAG, he can probably do this with any pair even with a 10 BB stack...but that doesn't help you since you're behind those. AK-AQ push too, of course. AJ? KQ? Maybe, from a LAG. AT-A9, KJ? I think we're entering wishful thinking territory here unless he's more than just 'LAGish' (if he was a real donkey I would know it by now). I think you're about tied with a 'reasonable LAG's' range there, overall, maybe a little ahead since yours is suited.

Button coldcalls 1/5 of his stack. This is a real hand range (that you are also probably not very ahead of if not far behind to).

You will miss 2/3 of flops (more if some aces are out), are OOP, and there's a large chance that if you hit, the button won't pay you. Why are you in this hand?

(If you are determined to be here anyway, push PF)

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This is good stuff, and certainly 100% of what I have been thinking about when revisiting the hand.

As for pushing preflop, I don't think that putting ~20% of my chips in preflop should mandate full commitment. If a king-high flop comes, I can bet and get away if I need to, and if the perfectly wrong flop comes (as it did), I can go bust.

Ultimately, I am getting around to believing the preflop call was the big mistake, even factoring in the addition elements of the 4 (or 5-)-card flop that I might get from the conspiratorial checkdown.

Folding next time.

[colson10]

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That said, remember, we're talking about the one guy at the table for whom your theory is immediately mitigated. He was the guy who could easily have pocket sixes or ace-jack here.


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These are best case scenario hands. Either way, you're never going to have huge equity in this pot. And if you just call preflop you're going to be playing a big pot out of position with AQ. That doesn't sound like much fun to me. Then considering that the flat call is often a big pair trying to encourage action, it just seems like a terrible spot. If the preflop caller is really just a goose who could have almost any two then pushing preflop is better, imo.

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In any event, I was kicking myself for not sticking with the perspective that you have outlined here, sir. Naturally, it was one of my first thoughts, but was then replaced by the desire to call.

Let me ask you--what about post-flop?

Perhaps a bet with the intent to fold if raised? That seems awfully weak, given the fact that I played the hand in the first place.

If not that, and obviously not a push, I am left with...what I did.

Which sucked, as you might recall.

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If I had called preflop like you did, I would have checked planning on c/ring all in. After he pushes, I don't think you have a choice but to call.

[flawless_victory]

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.Three items, three mistakes?

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yeah, i think so.