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  #1  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:45 PM
psyduck psyduck is offline
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Default Interesting satellite bubble hand

(Not my hand, xposted from another thread)


Situation:

The top 9 players out of 94 win a seat into the WA state championship. Everyone starts with a new chip stack in the championship round, so all that matters in the qualifier is finishing in one of those top 9 spots.

We’re down to the final table of 10 players. Only one more player has to bust out. The blinds are 400-800. I am the short stack with 4300, and I’m on the big blind for 800. There are two other short stacks; one is at 4500 and one is at 5100.

It’s folded to UTG + 2 who does a min raise to 1600. Folded around to me and I look at AdJh. If I fold I have 3500 left and will be in the small blind next hand for 400. If I go all in, the raiser will have to call 2700 more. If he folds, I will have 4300 + 400 + 1600 = 6300. If he calls and I win, I’ll have 4300 + 4300 + 400 = 9000. After his 1600 raise he had about 7000 in chips left.

Do I fold? Push? Do a stop-and-go?



What about if it was a short stack that had done the minraise?


Satellite situations are very interesting. Here on the very bubble, should I be doing any raising at ALL, since the payout argues for a very survivalist attitude? I'd love to hear satellite experts chime in.
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  #2  
Old 12-12-2005, 02:55 PM
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

tough place to be. I feel for ya. any reads?

he did only min raise, now that could be weakness or strength. has he seen you fold to these raises already? I think i push. he'll be getting 2:1 to call, so 90% likely he'll call. reads are so important at this point.

just noticed you said there are 2 other short stack. owweee. this might be why he is playing at you, figuring you will try to wait out the other short stacks, fact is though you are the shortest stack and will be even shorter if you give up your blinds here, I have to push this and go broke doing so.
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  #3  
Old 12-12-2005, 03:17 PM
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

Questions:

1) Where are the other short stacks?
2) Any reads on anyone?
3) When are the blinds scheduled to rise?

This is a seriously tough place to be. If you push and lose, you might as well have been blown out in 94th spot. You're at a table of 10 with AJ unsuited. Not great, but it could very well play well heads up. Lacking any other info, I'd fold.
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  #4  
Old 12-12-2005, 03:25 PM
LotsOfOuts69 LotsOfOuts69 is offline
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

It may sound crazy, but you are better off folding.
Being as you are the short stack, you will eventually have to make a move, but don't discount the fact that someone else will donk off all there chips. I have seen it so many times, even in satellites for $10,000 events, it is a very real possibility.

But given that it wont happen like that, you are better off waiting for a hand where you can be first all in. Wait for a late position, and if you can be the first one in, preferably with one of the other short-medium stacks as a big blind, then make your move.

I would fold the AJ here.

--LoO
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  #5  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:03 PM
psyduck psyduck is offline
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

to reply to rockin and paulie...

not my hand, short stack are mentioned above, and no reads

read the post you fools! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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  #6  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:11 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

[ QUOTE ]
It may sound crazy, but you are better off folding.
Being as you are the short stack, you will eventually have to make a move, but don't discount the fact that someone else will donk off all there chips. I have seen it so many times, even in satellites for $10,000 events, it is a very real possibility.

But given that it wont happen like that, you are better off waiting for a hand where you can be first all in. Wait for a late position, and if you can be the first one in, preferably with one of the other short-medium stacks as a big blind, then make your move.

I would fold the AJ here.

--LoO

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain has a good hand and want to take the blinds or end the tournament. He will probably fold to a raise from any but the 3 smallest stacks.

If you push, you are probably a coin flip. Fold and one of the other short stacks may make an ill-fated move or some moron may bust himself out.

If it's passed to you in the SB and you push with an average hand, the BB will probably fold and you are maybe a 5-4 dog if called. This is much better for you.

All you need to do is steal some blinds. You don't need to play a big hand and double up.
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  #7  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:14 PM
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

just because it is not your hand does not indicate there are ZERO reads. you've gotten the information from someone or something.
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  #8  
Old 12-12-2005, 04:34 PM
Superfluous Man Superfluous Man is offline
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

No way I'm putting chips into the pot with AJo in this situation. How long are the levels? If they are short (and have large increases), I'd try to stall so that one of the short stacks gets hit with the bigger blinds before you do.

If this isn't viable and everyone else is playing correctly (this is a big assumption; there's probably at least a 30% chance that two idiots will gamble it up), then you're going to have to gambool at some point. AJo isn't nearly strong enough against a raiser who's almost certainly going to call. If you're going to steal blinds, make sure it's from a person who isn't inclined to gamble with you (so, steal from the bigger stacks if they are playing correct "sit-out-and-win" poker).
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  #9  
Old 12-12-2005, 05:11 PM
stevepa stevepa is offline
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

Are the players to your left big/medium/small stacks? If they're big, there's a good chance I'd push. It's a close spot and you probably aren't going to be able to steal blinds much (if they're big stacks who are now just folding into the seat, ignore this). If they're medium/small (or big stacks folding) I would fold and push almost any two next time it's folded to me in the Sb/button/cutoff.

Steve

p.s. I do think a push has some fold equity. Despite the odds he's getting, your range looks super tight. He can probably fold in if he folds, but if he calls and loses he becomes the short stack.
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  #10  
Old 12-12-2005, 05:24 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Default Re: Interesting satellite bubble hand

i'd fold here. you're not that far behind the other two shorties. i'd fold AQ too. not sure on AK.
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