PP 15/30 88, looking for opinions

PinkyRingo · #1 01-07-2005, 03:10 PM

Sorry, I'm at work and don't have the actual HH.

First orbit at the table, no real info on players. Raise from MP. Folded to me in CO-1 and I 3-bet with 88. Feel free to comment on this isolation raise (good/bad/who cares?). CO calls 3 cold. Folded back to MP who calls.

Flop: Jd 8c 2c

MP checks. I bet. CO calls. MP folds.

Turn: 5s

I bet. CO raises. I 3-bet. CO caps.

River: 9h

What's my best course of action?

KidPokerX · #2 01-07-2005, 03:56 PM

The 5 did not scare you, the river also didn't scare you considering his preflop and flop action eliminates the straight possibility. Only thing to worry is JJ, which he would have played this way had he held it. Hopefully he overplayed AA/KK/QQ, but I can't say I'd be surprised to see he had JJ. I'd lead out on the river and call a reraise ... I think you have him beat the majority of time in this situation. Good post.

billuhbong · #3 01-07-2005, 04:18 PM

i'd bet into that river, if he raises just call down, only hand he may have that beats u is jj most likely overplaying qq, kk, aa, or just a stupid fish. u have him

JasonP530 · #4 01-07-2005, 04:37 PM

Most people wont call 3 cold with JJ. Its either cap or fold, and theyre not folding. My guess is that he had 22 or 55. I would definately lead the river, I dont know about 3 betting though....

flytrap · #5 01-07-2005, 04:38 PM

I usually fold this hand when it's 2 cold to me and no one has called. With no reads this is always a fold for me. If the guy raises a lot, and I'm pretty sure it'll be heads up, I'll 3 bet, but usually you're either a big dog or a slight favorite.

samz · #6 01-07-2005, 04:51 PM

I would say there is a 60% plus chance you are beat here.

You need to ask what the co would cold call three bets with and raise the turn with.

I think you can eliminate AA and KK - I find it unlikely he is playing AK like this -

He might have QQ but I think he is more likely cap it pre-flop with qq but he could have called three with either QQ or JJ. I say you are beat 60% of the time, because most players are more likely to cap it pre-flop with QQ than JJ.

I am not a big fan of your pre-flop re-raise with 88 - you are paying a lot of money to hit your set and there is nothing in the pot.

I really don't like the co's cold call of three bets - cap it or fold - considering he called three cold - who knows.

Without a read on the co, his raising the turn should make you nervous I would call and check it down. You don't have any kind of overlay here.

What hands is he likely to put you on - you re-raised a mid-position player - he raises the turn - he must put you on Jacks or better - likely a high PP - from his perspective there has got to be a chance that you have AA, KK, or QQ from your pre-flop action - again I guess he has JJ or QQ but he really sucks if he is capping it on the turn with QQ - IMHO
Sam

PinkyRingo · #7 01-07-2005, 04:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Most people wont call 3 cold with JJ. Its either cap or fold....

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting statement. I'd like to see who agrees or disagrees with this comment. When opponent capped the turn, my first thought was "It's very possible, perhaps even likely, considering his preflop and turn action, that he has precisely JJ." I was thinking back to the preflop cold-call and wondering what hand(s) he would do that with, and JJ seemed to me a likely candidate.

PinkyRingo · #8 01-07-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I am not a big fan of your pre-flop re-raise with 88 - you are paying a lot of money to hit your set and there is nothing in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call? Fold?

[ QUOTE ]

Without a read on the co, his raising the turn should make you nervous I would call and check it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really can't see just calling his turn raise here given that:

1) I have no specific knowledge of this player
2) This is PP 15/30

He could be raising here with much less than JJ, which is the only hand that beats me. QQ. Semi-bluff 4-flush. Even an under pair to the board trying to move me off AK. The 3-bet was automatic.

Thanks for all the comments so far.

ggbman · #9 01-07-2005, 05:40 PM

yeah the three bet should be automatic. Lead out on the river and call a raise.

jetsonsdogcanfly · #10 01-07-2005, 08:50 PM

First, the three bet with 88 is probably not a good idea your first orbit at the table. You're at best 50-50 against most raising hands, and you have no read. In that situation position is only gonna give you a cheaper coinflip, not the ability to outplay your isolated unknown opponent.

Second, bet the river, call a raise. He thinks your starting hand is JJ or better, especially after you three bet the turn. So his likely holdings are 22, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AJc or another club draw. He called three cold preflop, so i might not rule out QTc (although i wouldn't actually think about that during the hand). On the river JJ is the only hand that beats you (if you're worried about QTc, we have a problem). This suggests betting the river.

However, you also want to take into account the possibility that he will not be able to call. if you had a strong read in that direction, checking to induce a bluff might make sense.

The turn cap IMO means one of three things.
1. He is value betting. (AA, JJ, 22)
2. He was getting tricky, and raised with the intent of checking the river. (AJc, QQ, KK)
3. He was getting tricky with a semibluff, and raised with the intent of continuing aggression on the river. (clubs)

Given this, I'd go ahead and bet, then call a raise. He will rarely fold, and the number of imes you win, including when he bluff raises, far outweighs the times he has JJ.