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#41
10-13-2005, 06:12 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
Comparing 10/20NL to 10/20 limit is like comparing something really big to something really small. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I guess I really wasn't clear in what I was saying. What I meant was, both are denominated at the same level (10/20), and both are measured in the same denomination (one BB=$20). I was speculating on what a top notch 10/20 NL player would expect to win in terms of BB/100. I am fully aware of the variation in terms of skill and stakes between the two games. 
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#43
10-13-2005, 06:14 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] And, as I also said, NL has the reputation of having LESS variance than limit so it is even LESS likely for 'outliers' (freakishly lucky months) to occur... So the 160K month should be more repeatable at NL than a 160K month at limit. If James282 could have a 160K month at 10/20 NL we can expect top NL players to have similar types of months with relative consistency... I want to know if this hypothesis is correct. [/ QUOTE ] I'm guessing James ran better than anyone last month. This month, it will be a totally different guy. Same for next month. It's likely he will never have another month even close to this. [/ QUOTE ] FWIW I totally agree with this statement. -James [/ QUOTE ] james, A tip for next month: dont reraise $2,000 with A8 preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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#44
10-13-2005, 06:16 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] And, as I also said, NL has the reputation of having LESS variance than limit so it is even LESS likely for 'outliers' (freakishly lucky months) to occur... So the 160K month should be more repeatable at NL than a 160K month at limit. If James282 could have a 160K month at 10/20 NL we can expect top NL players to have similar types of months with relative consistency... I want to know if this hypothesis is correct. [/ QUOTE ] I'm guessing James ran better than anyone last month. This month, it will be a totally different guy. Same for next month. It's likely he will never have another month even close to this. [/ QUOTE ] FWIW I totally agree with this statement. -James [/ QUOTE ] james, A tip for next month: dont reraise $2,000 with A8 preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Lol, don't raise to 200 everytime me and some people want to see a cheap flop [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Also, there is one way to stop me from doing so! Click the middle button after I do it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] -James EDIT: I was also suited.
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#45
10-13-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] just because james is a nl novice and you are also, doesnt mean you can expect to win the same amount as him. he plays 300/600, you play 10/20.... [/ QUOTE ] Too true, too true. But looking at the success of others allows me to estimate what kind of success (magnitude and probability of success) I might have making the same transition. It's like a comp valuation in investment banking. [/ QUOTE ] i understand, but you are better off asking in ssnl, where people's positons are more likely to resemble yours. [/ QUOTE ] Fair enough. But at least now there is somewhat of a post-mortem on what happened in James' great month (hot running + good amount of skill due to certain limit skills James had developed previously and from reading the NL boards here). It is a fantastic performance, no one's going to dispute that, especially for someone who (as he explained in his interview) is relatively brand-new to NL, which is known as a low variance game. It was intriguing (and potentially important) to know what drivers were underlying the results James put up.
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#46
10-13-2005, 06:18 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] just because james is a nl novice and you are also, doesnt mean you can expect to win the same amount as him. he plays 300/600, you play 10/20.... [/ QUOTE ] Too true, too true. But looking at the success of others allows me to estimate what kind of success (magnitude and probability of success) I might have making the same transition. It's like a comp valuation in investment banking. [/ QUOTE ] LOL, yea, and do you and buy a firm based on solely comps?? hell no! so why would you assume that you're experience will be well proxied by a comp analysis? Barron
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#47
10-13-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] And, as I also said, NL has the reputation of having LESS variance than limit so it is even LESS likely for 'outliers' (freakishly lucky months) to occur... So the 160K month should be more repeatable at NL than a 160K month at limit. If James282 could have a 160K month at 10/20 NL we can expect top NL players to have similar types of months with relative consistency... I want to know if this hypothesis is correct. [/ QUOTE ] I'm guessing James ran better than anyone last month. This month, it will be a totally different guy. Same for next month. It's likely he will never have another month even close to this. [/ QUOTE ] FWIW I totally agree with this statement. -James [/ QUOTE ] james, A tip for next month: dont reraise $2,000 with A8 preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Lol, don't raise to 200 everytime me and some people want to see a cheap flop [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Also, there is one way to stop me from doing so! Click the middle button after I do it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] -James EDIT: I was also suited. [/ QUOTE ] if i am bluffing, you dont need to put it all to get me to give up, especially UTG.
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#48
10-13-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
10/20 in NL denotes blinds, 10/20 in limit denotes stakes. -James [/ QUOTE ] Yup, but when a 10/20 NL player says they're winning at 10BB/100 they're referring to blinds, if I'm correct, so the winrates would then be equivalent... 3BB/100 at 10/20 NL = 3BB/100 at 10/20 limit... $60 per 100 hands... or is this false?
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#49
10-13-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
i think the real post of the thread was Yeti's
james plays good poker. period. NL/limit whatever. i bet if i taught him what i know about lowball he'd pick it up in no time flat. clearly comparing NL he to lowball isn't fair b/c lowball is easier by a wide margin...just an example. combine that with a 1/100,000 or so run (maybe a bit shorter on the odds) and you have a 114k month in a game requiring a 50k br. also, i play with james a great deal as do quite a few of you who play 10/20NL (you also probably play a lot w/ me and some others) so you can see for yourself how he did it. get all in, win pot, repeat. sounds easy lol. i guess now im rambling but the bottom line is go ahead and try to repeat what he did and you'll live many lifetimes wondering why it wont happen for you. Barron
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#50
10-13-2005, 06:27 PM
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Re: 160K in 1 month for a NL novice- easy?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] just because james is a nl novice and you are also, doesnt mean you can expect to win the same amount as him. he plays 300/600, you play 10/20.... [/ QUOTE ] Too true, too true. But looking at the success of others allows me to estimate what kind of success (magnitude and probability of success) I might have making the same transition. It's like a comp valuation in investment banking. [/ QUOTE ] LOL, yea, and do you and buy a firm based on solely comps?? hell no! so why would you assume that you're experience will be well proxied by a comp analysis? Barron [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. That's why you don't see my jumping into NL with a big chunk of my roll. Corporations will use comp analysis in addition to other valuation techniques. Same applies for me... if I could find a player with similar experience to me at limit poker, similar intellect, similar skills etc. who all of a sudden started winning $100K per month at triple draw, I would not be out of line in thinking that perhaps I too could succeed at triple draw at a similar level if I gave it a try. If the only difference between James and me is that he has a lot more limit experience and has done some reading on these NL boards, then I should be able to expect that, with the same experience and education, I too can have success at NL. Will that success be worth the time and risk? Am I better off focusing on limit for now in terms of EV and risk? The more information I get, the better decisions I can make about such matters.
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