when the board pairs on the turn do you bet?

[elmitchbo]

a guy in my home game has a theory. he isn't a great player in my estimation, and i'm sure he just made up the percentages in his statement, but i think he might be onto something.

he says... if the board pairs on the turn the first person to bet at the pot takes it down 80%+ of the time.

i've adopted this little strategy and it seems to work. if the board pairs on the turn, no matter what the action has been or what you hold, stab at the pot if you're first to act or it's checked to you. i've been surprised how many times it's worked.

is this a long standing idea that i just didn't know about? or is it a stupid idea that i've gotten lucky with a few times? the more i think about it the more i like it. it seems like it would be a good addition to the LAG game i'm trying to learn [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[jba]

it depends a whole lot on the action, rest of the board, etc., but as a general rule: when the board pairs, solid players will take more shots at a pot, and they will also realize that other players are more likely to do the same.

[soko]

You can't just simply ignore the flop action when the turn pairs and bet at it 80% of the time, that's retarded.

If it checks through on the flop then the board pairs on the turn there is a very good chance that nobody has made a hand worthy of a call because it's so hard to hit a board that is paired. You might pick up some pots because nobody has a hand to call you, which means you might have even been able to steal it on the flop. If the pot is raised before the flop though that eliminates alot of the hands you could be betting when the board pairs so dont be surpised being called by ace king top pair when the turn puts a pair of 3s on the board. There are alot of things to consider.

[AaronBrown]

While there is some useful insight in this approach, it has its dangers. The fact that it works 80% of the time (if true) does not necessarily mean it's a winning strategy.

You hold KQ and the flop comes in 995 with no flush possibilities. You bet hoping people will think you have A9 or something. 80% of the time people fold and you pick up the preflop bets. 20% of the time you get reraised. If you fold all 20% of the time, you will soon find yourself reraised 100% of the time and you're just throwing away your bet. If you stick things out to showdown, you'll lose a lot when someone else has A9, or JJ, or some other better hand.

[winky51]

TO pull this hat trick off you need several things to be in place.

Lets say your the BB and an EP, MP, and SB limps.

Board comes 625, all check, turn pairs the 2, SB checks.

In this case it would be good to bet.

SB would have bet if he had something either on the flop or the turn.

EP probably has high cards, MP a less impressive hand. Since MP was last to act on the flop he has a perfect opportunity to steal... he didnts thus he has no hand.

So now it is right to bet. The situation is perfect. I do this a lot with a high volume of success
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Now same players and the flop is 234 and the board pairs 234 3 on the turn. Now if you do try this stunt you have to be prepared to have even more factors go right. Many players with Ace high will call here hoping for the overs or the straight draw. So if your players are apt to do this you also need to bet the river. Now it gets expensive. Also consider if the calling player will call with Ace high on the end? If so then the play can't be pulled off. I have seen players call with the ace in that situation then call the river "just in case you're bluffing".

The best scenario is when you have a draw and are certain no one has anywhing.

Board 236 3 and you hold 47 or something similar. Probably you have any 4, any 5, any 7 as outs for a total of 10.
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This really depends at what limit you are playing at. I think it will make horrible chasers fold, but when I see someone take a shot at a paired turn, especially if the are betting into the flop raiser, I put them on a bluff (unless they are good and vary their game) and may reraise them with air. Of course it depends on the situation and their ability to carry on the bluff to a 4 bet.

In short, I think this is a bit see through and should be used sparingly. However, I think it is a good play when you first get to the table, because you wouldn't mind getting caught. I like people to think I am making a lot more plays at pots than I am, so some ridiculous advertising early usualy does the trick (or picks up lots of cheap pots).

depends on a lot of factors, but, if the action has been checked on the flop you could probably take down the pot whtever comes on the turn about 2/3rds of the time, especially if it has been checked to you again after the turn. They may well fold if you sneeze on the pot!!

An experienced player may well be trapping you with a set etc, if you get action you are beat.

Remember most flops miss most hands, often the first to bet takes it down.