battle of blinds on bubble

[rvg72]

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77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S


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KQo is 89.6% percentile of starting hands heads up
A8o is 88.4% percentile of starting hands heads up
77 is 96.5% percentile of starting hands heads up

so it is fair that they be grouped together.

Top 12% hand (heads-up) would include:

66+,A7s+,A9o+,KTs+,KQo

rvg

[durron597]

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why should we have a bias towards folding? if we believe it's +.1% we should obviously push. ICM already takes into account the fact that bubbling is bad.

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ICM doesn't take skill edge into account. Why gamble for +.1% EV when it's such a small increase and we think we will have higher EV situations later?

[Jay36489]

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why isn't the default 0%? if pushing is better than folding by $0.000001, i want to push. (in fact, i would give up a tiny bit of equity b/c of hourly rate considerations. also pushing is fun.)

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You basically want to take coinflips at this point? Hourly rate? The bubble will probably last no more then 10 mins and you are content to coinflip right now to save yourself 10 mins? If thats your style, more power to ya. Gambooool it up man.
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what is k-s? just because that range doesn't correspond with some hand chart doesn't make it not true. so i don't care if you think it's "all over the place."

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Good point. You are correct in that your opponents will not be playing perfect poker and their ranges will be all over the place. But you should know what the K-S chart is.

[schwza]

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if pushing is better by .000001, then you shouldn't wanna push, as you can pick a better place to increase your ev...u should be better than your opps...and you may be mistaken on ur opps' calling range

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it's true i may be mistaken, but we don't know which way i'm mistaken.

as i said in another post, one reason passing on a +EV edge is bad is that taking the edge and busting allows you to start another STT right way, which is +EV.

good point about being able to a slightly more +EV situation later. not sure which is more important.

[Jay36489]

Where do you get those rankings? I took the K-S chart, imported it into excel, then ran the 169 hands and divided by their position.

[Jay36489]

People were talking about taking slightly +EV situations early, not on the bubble. Saving yourself 50 mins is a lot different then saving yourself a max 10 mins, but probably a lot less (more like 3)...

[gumpzilla]

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what is k-s? just because that range doesn't correspond with some hand chart doesn't make it not true. so i don't care if you think it's "all over the place."

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K-S = Karlson-Sklansky. It's a list of hands sorted in order of how large a stack it would be profitable for you to push with with your cards face up if it is folded to you on either the button or the SB, I can't remember. The original poster should note that this is different than what you're looking for in a calling hand against somebody who could be pushing a broad range. AKs is the third highest ranked K-S hand, but the reason that it outperforms QQ in that test is that you'll get called by a lot more hands that are only slightly ahead, as opposed to QQ which will be called more rarely but only when it's a total dog. By contrast, if you're deciding to call against an opponent pushing any two, you'd clearly much rather have QQ than AK, so it's not necessarily a good idea to take these things and try and apply them where they don't belong.

[grandgnu]

3rd place money is pointless, bubble lack of money is pointless. Play to win, there are two folds behind you, your hand is VERY strong in this spot, I push everytime. Do you think you'll catch as strong a hand in the next three to four hands when the blind hits you again?

this isn't the time to play tight. If you run into a stronger hand, it happens, what can ya do?

Heads-up I pushed with 4/4 and ran into A/3 and he caught an Ace. Very next hand I had J/J and pushed against A/Q suited and he hit a Queen and I was out in 2nd. Even as a slight favorite I lost two hands in a row and went away (after securing the chip lead with A/K vs. K/7).

You can't be afraid to push with these hands, or you'll be bubbling a lot.

[schwza]

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77 is top 9% K-S
A8o is top 16% K-S
KQo is top 20% K-S


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KQo is 89.6% percentile of starting hands heads up
A8o is 88.4% percentile of starting hands heads up
77 is 96.5% percentile of starting hands heads up

so it is fair that they be grouped together.

Top 12% hand (heads-up) would include:

66+,A7s+,A9o+,KTs+,KQo

rvg

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well, BB's range is really anybody's guess. it may be A8+, K2+,QJs. but what it should be is something like "hands that do well against a top 40% hand" or "hands that do well against a top 80% hand," or something like that, depending on BB's perceptions of us.

using hand rankings based on how they stand up to against a random hand (as i think rvg does) isn't really right because 66 looks like a frickin' champion. the problem is that villain knows hero is not likely to push 34o, which is where 66 really shines over a hand like KQ. so smallish pairs are not as good for calling pushes as a random-hand chart says they are.

the same holds true for K-S. K-S ranks 33 above KQ, KTs, and A7o. if villain calls with 33 i'm floored, but if he calls with any of the other three i'm not particularly surprised. do you think 33 is more likely to call than KQ? so it makes sense that a competent villain's calling range will be "all over the place" given according to either hand-value chart.

[rvg72]

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KQo is 89.6% percentile of starting hands heads up
A8o is 88.4% percentile of starting hands heads up
77 is 96.5% percentile of starting hands heads up

using hand rankings based on how they stand up to against a random hand (as i think rvg does) isn't really right because 66 looks like a frickin' champion.

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You are correct - those percentile numbers are based on results vs random hands so I should have mentioned that. My point there was just to show that the grouping of those hands together in a call range was reasonable.

rvg