Should I Bluff?(PLO8)

[Jorge10]

I got A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] im in the cut-off(1 off the button). PLO 200 on Party. I got a 200 dollar stack as does everyone else in the hand.

Preflop: 3 folds, 2 calls, everyone else folds to me, I raise it up to about 4 times the blind standard raise I do with any hand I play from this spot, both blinds call, middle position guys call me.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](40 in the middle)

Blinds and middle position guys check to me, I pot it, blinds fold, first middle position guy calls(Villan), second middle position guy folds.

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](120 in the middle)

Villan checks to me, Hero ?

What do you guys think here? Bluff it or just take the free card and hope the board pairs on the river?

Ill post results in a bit, just want to see opinions without results first.

[Ribbo]

Absolutely, because you probably still have the best hand, people know not to draw to non nut flushes, bet for value to charge those low draws.

I would have to bet to charge that low chaser.

Good post.

First, what could he have. Worst case he has a low draw with some medium-sized flush (even K-high may be trying to see the river cheaply since OOP, or could be planning to chk-raise). That hand will definitely at least call you and have you in pretty bad shape. Other hands that may call, but against which you have some decent fold equity, include a good wheel-wrap draw like 234, or a K/J-high flush w/ no low. All other hands would very likely fold to a bet here--if not you should charge them for a low-only draw or whatever it is anyway.

So--the question is does the fold equity in the latter possibilities make up for the outcome where you bet & get called/raised by a hand that you will need to river a pair to beat. In general I think the answer is probably yes... If you're against that worst case scenario, you may have to draw with 3:1 odds against making your hand while getting only 2:1 from the pot (if he raises you). Not a good situation. But, that's only -EV by a slight margin. Also bad is when you bet, he calls, the river puts a low out, he leads and you are forced to a tough decision (probably fold). In that case, it's quite -EV. But when you bet and he folds, it's a big +EV. So as long as he will fold a little more often, say about 55% of the time, than he calls/raises you, then betting is correct.

I think that based on the way the hand has been played so far (generally passively on his part), and what I assume to be a strong image for you, you're going to get a fold enough of the time to make betting the right answer.

[Jorge10]

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Absolutely, because you probably still have the best hand, people know not to draw to non nut flushes, bet for value to charge those low draws.

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Thats pretty much what went through my mind. Anyway I potted it. He raised me, I had 32 bucks left after potting it so its not like I could fold. So I call.

River: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He shows 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

What do you guys think about it now? I have a few thoughts about the whole situation, but I want to see what the general concensus is first.

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Absolutely, because you probably still have the best hand, people know not to draw to non nut flushes, bet for value to charge those low draws.

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Thats pretty much what went through my mind. Anyway I potted it. He raised me, I had 32 bucks left after potting it so its not like I could fold. So I call.

River: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He shows 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

What do you guys think about it now? I have a few thoughts about the whole situation, but I want to see what the general concensus is first.

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Now that we know stack sizes, I think betting is definitely the right move. Just go through the EV calculations exactly for each scenario, assign some weights to the chances of each playing out, and you'll see you made the right play. It becomes a little more iffy if the stacks are very deep in comparison to the size of the pot.

[donger]

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Absolutely, because you probably still have the best hand, people know not to draw to non nut flushes, bet for value to charge those low draws.

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Thats pretty much what went through my mind. Anyway I potted it. He raised me, I had 32 bucks left after potting it so its not like I could fold. So I call.

River: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He shows 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

What do you guys think about it now? I have a few thoughts about the whole situation, but I want to see what the general concensus is first.

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What happened is the worst-case scenario. A lot of times he's going to have a draw for half the pot, a smaller set, two pair + a low draw, etc, and not stacking him on the turn would be a crime.