Diagnosing a poor win rate.....

[MarkD]

[ QUOTE ]
to answer your question, absolutely. It has always been the 2nd best for me behind 2 pair, in terms of money collected.


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Interesting. One pair has always been losing for me in PT. This is curious.

[DpR]

but maybe that is my problem. First, I posted these hands since it was funny to me that my [censored] luck continued while writing about my luck lol.

Hand #1) I totally disagree. I am getting rasied here by any decent Q and I have a flush. I think I am ahead here 90% of the time. I certainly dont put him on a boat here with q4 or q6. River is a must bet - how can I possible fold to that raise with that pot?

#3) Thin value bet? Dont I get called here by any K? I certainly was not going to check becasue of the back door flush - just unlucky here. I think this is a bet 100% of time - his hand look exactly like K10, Kj, or KQ.

IMO I did not overplay any of these hands. That said I realize my opinion hasnt been working so great. As for my win rate while winning 800BB I would guess it was about 1.5BB/100 - definitley nothing exceptional.

Thank you for taking the time to reply.

[Yeknom58]

How many hands of the total are from 5/10. So you've had losing streaks of 300/240/250BB and you're still around. How far apart were these streaks? If this is over the course of 2-3 years, ya no big deal, but if this is all over the past 2 months I think you have a bigger problem.

[DpR]

All the hands are 5/10. They are over the last 2-3 months. All the streaks are in that time period, however there are big winning streaks in between them as well. Net-net I am a winner (0.18 BB/100 over these 40k hands) but the win rate is very poor.

I started playing about 3 months ago and up about 500 BB still (most before these stats though). In these last week I am on a 310 BB (as of today)losing streak. However, the week before this one I won 290BB.......very big swings....

[PraetorianAZ]

31% showdown but you win 34% of your hands? (my #'s are similar and I only win 27%!) It sounds like your hands go like this: You raise and get 1-2 callers. If you hit your A/K you bet. They either fold immediately or they call the flop and raise the turn/river. You call down to see another "bad beat". Sound familiar? One pair shouldn't be hugely negative. You're an ATM for anyone who hits the flop better than you and they know your hand.

Raise T9s from MP once in a while. Check/call the flop and check-raise the turn with TPTK. Pretend you're scared when you're ahead and let them bet your hand. Add deception.

Loosening up adds deception too. Open-raising JTs might not be +EV, but it adds EV to your AA.

That's my theory anyhow.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

Hand #1: Your getting raised by bigger flushes and FH's also, but you still bet when they call your 3 bet. A bigger flush that wasn't the nut might not 4 bet it due to the paired board or the fact they don't have the nut flush. Also, you were in the SB, they can't be faulted for thinking you have Q6/Q4 in an unraised pot.

Now think about what hands call your bet on the river. unimproved trips is about it. The other hands that call beat you almost all the time.

So check/call when the board is paired and you have a baby flush on the river and your raised on the turn and they call your 3 bet. This is the problem of being out of position in marginal situations like this. You can't maximize your winnings only your losses.

Hand 3: If he's that bad he'd 3 bet you with K bad kicker and then still call the turn, value bet the river. I never value bet the river with 1 pair out of position, I always just check/call because when your ahead you rarely get called, and when your behind you lose 2BB not 1BB to see the showdown. Sure I miss a value bet here and there from a complete calling station, but you usually make those bets up by just having them at the table.

Thanks,
MarkV.

[Cosimo]

[ QUOTE ]
You raise and get 1-2 callers. If you hit your A/K you bet. They either fold immediately or they call the flop and raise the turn/river. You call down to see another "bad beat". Sound familiar?

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds familiar to me.

I'm up for the month, but just barely--about one session's win. This is really the first month that I've played a lot, though, so I think I've learned a lot. I hope so, at least. I think what you mention here is one of my leaks.

The biggest holes that I've plugged have been playing weak broadway hands like QTo, not enough mid/low pairs, and too many suited connectors. I play at UB micro-limits; table flop % is between 33% and 48%. Players are generally very loose and passive after the flop, which makes extracting money from those top pairs expensive. Unless I hit trips or something else, I think that one pair loses to draws.

Many of the suckouts against me are lone pairs that hit trips or two pair on the river (but I don't know if that's just selective memory).

[tech]

Sounds like you have already gotten some good advice, but here are my thoughts.

I would guess that you are taking your hands too far. The ones you posted in this thread are pretty much all bad beats. No problem there. But as someone else said, it is very hard to believe that you could have three downswings that big in such a short period of time without just spewing chips.

I have a hard time interpreting PT stats without context. Yours seem reasonable (perhaps too tight, but you should be a winning player with that VP$IP). My advice is to post some typical (not bad beat) hands for review. You might have some leaks that you are not aware of.

Hope things turn around for you.

[DpR]

You know it is odd, because over calling would be the fisrt thing that came to mind to me as well. That I actually have had to work on folding less if anything!!!!

After reading a lot of post on 2+2 I realized I might be folding too much so I try to play more aggressive with "less than nut" hands. That said I also recongnize there are some scenarios where I might take hands too far - big PPs in particular.

I am going to try to post some of these hands even though they often appear quite banal. Thanks for the good wishes and the reply!

[tech]

Well, that's certainly a possibility too. What is your % fold to river bet (from PokerTracker)?