Diagnosing a poor win rate..... - Page 2

BigEndian · #11 06-24-2004, 02:15 PM

I'm not going to claim any authority in this area, but I believe it's very possible to have absolutely HUGE holes in your game that are not reflected in these stats that everyone likes to post. You really should put those behind you and work on real poker.

The trick is, it's pretty easy to win before 5/10 by only having tight PF standards. Most of your opponents are so bad that it overshadows the mistakes you personally make. So much so that you re-inforce bad habits because you think you have the game licked.

Remember, you win at poker because you are better than the average player you compete against. The 5/10 at Party, while it still has moments of joyous loose aggresive love that we have come to know at PP, it presently filled with a large number of 2+2 players who have moved up.

While it is probably not 30/60 tough, it is a radical change from what it used to be. Add to that the large number of multi-tablers and it requires adjustments to your game that you may not have experiened before.

- Jim

DpR · #12 06-24-2004, 03:30 PM

1) I don't think the tightness is a concern - I know many people who have similar vpip and are winners. That doesnt mean it wouldnt be better though - but I am not sure.

2) Aggression Factor overall 1.6
PF - 1.1
2.9
2.5
1.6

Standard Deviation 12BB/100

Interesting stats is that I am a HUGE loser with 1 pair. Are most people winning $ in this category?

DpR · #13 06-24-2004, 03:34 PM

Well I think that is my point of looking for some advice if possible. I have read all the books and certainly consider everything that is talked about in them (certainly not in an expert fashion though obviously).

The most confusing part is that prior to gettting poker traker I was a 800BB winner in the same game (not sure what the win rate was though). I dont know if I have changed my game somehow after getting the tracker.....

I not sure how your message is constructive for me - but thanks for posting anyway.

arkady · #14 06-24-2004, 03:58 PM

SD looks good, so you are not a terribly swingy player.

Aggression is more than I expected, seems like good 'ol tight aggressive player.

to answer your question, absolutely. It has always been the 2nd best for me behind 2 pair, in terms of money collected.

So if you are not concerned about your tightness - then it may very well be just a bad run. Although as some1 pointed out ealrier, those massive down swings are a bit disturbing.

StellarWind · #15 06-24-2004, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Standard Deviation 12BB/100

[/ QUOTE ]
Ding! Ding! Ding! We may have a winner here.

This looks very low. Certainly I'm not a swingy player. My 2/4 stats are about 16% VP$IP and 8% PFR. Not so far from you yet my SD is about 17 BB/100.

I'm going to speculate that you fold too much on the flop. Every time you have pot odds to play a weak draw and don't your EV goes down and your SD goes way down. Ditto when you miss +EV opportunities to try and make weak made hands stand up on a dangerous board.

This is total guesswork on my part, but I suggest you publish all of your PT stats for flop play. Then go reread Ed Miller's essay from early in the year concerning "you fold too much". See if you recognize yourself.

DpR · #16 06-24-2004, 04:44 PM

Wow -
I have lost 280 BBs on one pair - over that 40k hands.

Maybe I am just "the cooler" - look at the three hands I have VP$iP while wiritng this message: I dont think there is anythign else i can do here - but it jsut comical at this point....

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks,

Flop: (4 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP2 folds, Button folds.

Turn: (3 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

River: (9 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB
Main Pot: 13 BB, between Hero and BB. > Pot won by BB (13 BB).

Results in white below: 
Hero shows 8s 7s (flush, queen high).
BB shows 8c Qc (full house, queens full of eights).
Outcome: BB wins 13 BB. 

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $7.
1 fold, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB calls,

Flop: (8.80 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.40 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, CO folds, BB calls.

River: (8.40 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.40 BB
Main Pot: 8.40 BB, between BB and Hero. > Pot won by BB (8.40 BB).

Results in white below: 
BB shows 5h 8c (two pair, eights and fives).
Hero shows Kd Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: BB wins 8.40 BB. 

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls,

Flop: (8.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, Button folds, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (9.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.20 BB
Main Pot: 13.20 BB, between Hero and MP1. > Pot won by MP1 (13.20 BB).

Results in white below: 
Hero shows Ah Kd (one pair, kings).
MP1 shows Ks Ts (flush, king high).
Outcome: MP1 wins 13.20 BB.

DpR · #17 06-24-2004, 04:53 PM

I do see your point. I don't THINK this is an issue, but I am going to reread Ed's post just to make sure.

Flop Stats: Raise 9.1%, Bet 30%, Call l3%, Check 24%, Fold 24% Agg Factor 2.9.

Any others I should consider?

arkady · #18 06-24-2004, 05:27 PM

Hey, mine is 13!! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

arkady · #19 06-24-2004, 05:31 PM

holy crap bro, that is some nasty stuff. Last time I went through similarly painful experience was in May (my worst month EVER).

You are just outplaying them, but they are rivering you to death. You hang in there man, it will turn around.

David Ross has told me that he suspects he had a 40k hand break even streak at one point. While you probably would prefer to be break even now, a down swing of your magnitude is probably achievable.

Also, try contacting Bob T. he can take your stats and actually crank out how much you could stand to lose over a period of time. Make sure you provide a nice sample where you had "some" kind of win rate.

Good luck man!

P.S. STRONGLY consider switching from Party to something else, both AP and UB are/were running bonuses and can provide a change of scenery you will enjoy. By the time money transfers over, you will have a break as well - its for the best.

MVicuna · #20 06-24-2004, 06:11 PM

Hi,

Hand #1. Everyone can see the paired board and the 3 spades on board. You were raised by a bigger flush or a boat on the turn, don't 3 bet it AND don't bet into them on the river and absolutely don't call the raise on the river. So what you were right this time and were sucked out, more often then not you are drawing dead.

Hand #2. You played this one correctly, no thin value bet here.

Hand #3. Another thin value bet that only gets called when your behind. If you think he's capable of bluffing it, check to him and then call. You lose less when its not a bluff. This is an example as to why your losing so much with 1 pair. Your making thin value bets on the river and then calling raises and losing 2BB rather then 1BB.

I think your selectively looking at your losses. 2 hands you showed us were hands where you overplayed the vulnerable but 'winning' hand and losing to an ugly suckout on the river.

If your style is the same as it is now when you were up 800BB, I imagine you had some amazing BB/100 rate that nobody would consider sustainable. Welcome to the rebound.

Just my opinion,
MarkV.