Diagnosing a poor win rate.....

DpR · #1 06-24-2004, 04:23 AM

Can't seem to get a decent win rate at 5/10. On a 300BB losing streak and have had streaks for 240 and 250BB losses prior to this recent one.

My poker tracker stats look as follows:

39,020 hands
13.92 Vip
20.8% Vip from SB
27% attmp to Steal B
34.75% W$wSF
0.18 BB/100
31.4 WSDS
53.9 W@SD
7.51% PFR
7.3% of total hands won
10.92% saw flop not blind

Anything else I am missing that would be of interest?

Any advice would be appreciated. I dont know if I am the unluckiest guy around but I jsut can never get anything going always...(insert bad beat story here)

Have reread every poker book written in last few weeks and cant break the curse. Anyone see anything that might be helpful to me?

I certainly appreciate any comments you are willing to share.

Thanks in advance!

asdf1234 · #2 06-24-2004, 04:44 AM

None of your stats appear egregiously out of line. Of course, if stats were all that mattered, then there would be a lot more winners. Your showdown win rate may be slightly low. I would suggest posting hands that you have trouble with, as the problem likely lies in your postflop play.

DpR · #3 06-24-2004, 04:54 AM

Yeah, SD win rate is definitley low - lol I always lose!!! hehe

What is odd though is that I don't think my went to SD % is high, which I think would explain the low win rate. If anything it is a little lower than some others I have seen post.

I wish I had a specific situations that I could post which I seem to struggle with. The things that jump out at me at playing big PP's and playing heads up. I don't lay down the big PPs very easily, but I find that I usually heads up with them and cant lay down just cause an overcard hits. Heads-up it like Im always doing the wrong thing. When I try to play strong with overcards or something I am alwyas beat somehow. Basically, I never seem to draw out anything and the opponenet always seems to - but I know this cant really be unless I am really just unlucky. Can someone please pass me a tissue?

Ill brainstorm on typical hands I have trouble with.....

DeeJ · #4 06-24-2004, 05:27 AM

Stats look fine. Either you are playing tough opponents or you are getting sucked out on too much!

I found a couple of leaks with my play by studying hands I should be winning more with (eg AQo looked ropey) and seeing where I was losing money (overplaying) or should have extracted more (from loose opponents by being more aggressive).

It does require plenty of hands to extract patterns.

I was going to post an example but the converter seems to be broke for Paradise? Bison?

DpR · #5 06-24-2004, 05:44 AM

I don't ever tilt by the typical meaning of the word, particularly playing too many hands. I do however tilt into hoplessness on some of these big losing streaks. I am aware of it and try hard to remain aggressive etc. First these hands happen (this has happened several times a day for the last week):

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (7 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.20 BB
Main Pot: 16.20 BB, between MP1 and Hero. > Pot won by MP1 (16.20 BB).

Results in white below: 
MP1 shows Th Ts (full house, tens full of threes).
Hero shows Jd Qd (flush, queen high).
Outcome: MP1 wins 16.20 BB. 

Then I play a hand like this where I have no real strategy and jsut give up (perhaps appropriatly here?):

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.20 BB
Main Pot: 6.20 BB, won by CO.
Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to CO.

Results in white below: 
No showdown. CO wins 7.20 BB. 

I don't know if the phsycology of losing is prolonging my streaks but they are tough to deal with. I think Mason said 300BB loss was a 3s.d. event? I have had close to three such streaks in the last month. Further, I play pretty tight and would have thought my play was variance reducing compared to the average Joe rather than the opposite (I dont run with too many suited connectors up front etc.)

Thanks again to all those who reply. I know there is no silver bullet here - but it can be soothing to vent....

Joe826 · #6 06-24-2004, 05:55 AM

Hand 2 is not all that bad, I would take a shot at it also. The only thing is, you should fold right when CO raises on the flop if you plan to fold the turn unimproved. Have you thought about jumping back to 3/6 for a while just to see how things go?

DpR · #7 06-24-2004, 06:29 AM

Have been thinking about it more and more as i lose more and more. BR below 500 BB now at 5/10 level so might be haeaded to the 3/6 soon......

Michael Davis · #8 06-24-2004, 06:32 AM

Not to sound harsh, but if you've experienced a 3SD result three times in the past month, the chances are overwhelming that you just aren't very good. I don't mean to be a dick here, but your game probably needs some major improvement.

It takes a lot of heart to keep raising and betting with your good but vulnerable hands when it seems like you are being drawn out on every hand. Suck it up and bet wisely always.

-Michael

arkady · #9 06-24-2004, 11:02 AM

I am going to go out on a limb and say:

1) You are TOO tight - just way too tight, I have yet to see that kind of VPIP.

By playing so tightly all that has to happen is a few major pots go the other way on a river card and your entire win rate is shot.

2) PFR is low. Now 7.5 might be ok given your VPIP, but seems a bit low. I would really like to see your aggression factor, overall and for each street.

Post your SD too plz and the summaries for your tables. I guess this is Party? But look in the summary tab, it should have a breakdown on the tables.

Also, how many hands/how much time have you spent playing 3/6?

Bob T. · #10 06-24-2004, 01:44 PM

On hand 1, even though you were ahead, I wouldn't have raised your opponents turn bet. You only have top pair, mediocre kicker, and I don't think that is usually worth multiple bets on the turn.

On hand 2, I would have limped preflop after there was already one limper with your medium pocket pair.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.