High card A, similar to Barron

[DpR]

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but now he expects you to call the river despite his badness as a player. you said he doesn't get aggressive w/o a hand and here he is capping the flop....would he do this with a draw? if not you must fold the river.

if there's a chance he'lll do it w/ JT etc... then clearly you must call the river...this is what i meant by not 3betting if you're almost certain he wouldn't cap w/o a hand but theres a chance you may have to call the river also.



-Barron

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You have brought up an interesting point although not in a way that correlated with my thinking. First, I did mislead a bit i think. I had not seen him get aggressive with anything really, but I only had 110ish hands on him - so I was placing him more in the general 'fish' vat for playing purposes.

I was thinking that the 3-bet preflop was certainly reasonable (I made it becasue I very likley had a ton of out if I was even behind at all). Now when he caps I am surprised. I have an obvious call on the turn, but when I got to the river I was more inclinded to call becasue he had capped the flop - this might be totally off base.

Here is my thinking. I am representing an overpair. He is not very aggressive (lets call it average). What made hand does he have here that is not likley to call my 3-bet and raise the turn? I was thinking (when I got to the river I was thinking this at least) that when he caps it looks most like a draw. When both draws miss I decided to call the river. I thought the hand was interesting becasue the cap somehow seemed to make it more likley that I call the river.

Now the question is, if I thought that he was capable of capping with the draw (which I obviously did), why 3-bet the flop? The obvious answer is if he had a draw I am charging him (but I don't like that answer since if he caps he still gets his free card on the turn since I am not following a cap with bet where I have to call a turn raise). If he has a made hand I am just losing more money by three betting. All that said, for some reason I think if I call the flop and turn, I think I check fold the river........interesting.

[Nate tha' Great]

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but now he expects you to call the river despite his badness as a player. you said he doesn't get aggressive w/o a hand and here he is capping the flop....would he do this with a draw? if not you must fold the river.

if there's a chance he'lll do it w/ JT etc... then clearly you must call the river...this is what i meant by not 3betting if you're almost certain he wouldn't cap w/o a hand but theres a chance you may have to call the river also.



-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

You have brought up an interesting point although not in a way that correlated with my thinking. First, I did mislead a bit i think. I had not seen him get aggressive with anything really, but I only had 110ish hands on him - so I was placing him more in the general 'fish' vat for playing purposes.

I was thinking that the 3-bet preflop was certainly reasonable (I made it becasue I very likley had a ton of out if I was even behind at all). Now when he caps I am surprised. I have an obvious call on the turn, but when I got to the river I was more inclinded to call becasue he had capped the flop - this might be totally off base.

Here is my thinking. I am representing an overpair. He is not very aggressive (lets call it average). What made hand does he have here that is not likley to call my 3-bet and raise the turn? I was thinking (when I got to the river I was thinking this at least) that when he caps it looks most like a draw. When both draws miss I decided to call the river. I thought the hand was interesting becasue the cap somehow seemed to make it more likley that I call the river.

Now the question is, if I thought that he was capable of capping with the draw (which I obviously did), why 3-bet the flop? The obvious answer is if he had a draw I am charging him (but I don't like that answer since if he caps he still gets his free card on the turn since I am not following a cap with bet where I have to call a turn raise). If he has a made hand I am just losing more money by three betting. All that said, for some reason I think if I call the flop and turn, I think I check fold the river........interesting.

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You mean if I cap the flop with the best hand against you, you're not only going to pay extra bets there but also pay off the expensive streets with ace high? kewl!!

Anyway, I don't think that calling the river is a huge mistake, but I do think that it has a negative expectation. Part of the reason why is that the K on the turn is a scare card that might slow down a lot of draws.

[DpR]

[quote
You mean if I cap the flop with the best hand against you, you're not only going to pay extra bets there but also pay off the expensive streets with ace high? kewl!!

Anyway, I don't think that calling the river is a huge mistake, but I do think that it has a negative expectation. Part of the reason why is that the K on the turn is a scare card that might slow down a lot of draws.

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If I think you are pretty striaghtfoward yes. You joke at this statement like it is horrible, but you can only exploit it if you know it is true. If you have 89 here or any set do you cap the flop? How bout 77 or A8? Aggressive players may, but not your average joe and certainly not you average super loose avg aggression player. The better hands are going to be raised on the turn to get more out of me (since they certainly can not assume they get more out of me by default after capping) and the worse hands will call down in fear of the overpair.

Against the type of opponent I am against here when he raises my flop bet I am thinking perhaps 90% (1 pair or 2 pair) 10% draw (especially since he would not want to limit the field given a draw), but when he caps my three bet I am thinking it is more like 50%/50% made hand vs draw. Since I have a draw to beat any made hand the turn call is easy. Then on the river nothing is changed so I think I am 50% to have the best hand - that may be high, but it is certainly more than the 8% I need to take it down. I have convinced myself it is a no-brainer on the river.

Now clearly if you know I am thinking like this you are going to cap your hands on the flop since you are gaining my river bet. This is not exploitable IMO since the situation has to be perfect. If I don't have the draw on the turn I probably fold there and you lose a half bet by capping the flop (which means the % that correlates to my gut must be less than 50%/50% mentioned above and closer to 30% (we can calc if we like) but certainly more than 8%).

Regarding the K slowing him down, I do not think this is a factor. This is a fish, he is not thinking about what I have. FWIW, he had 67o and MHWG.