Flop a joint, river pairs board

[AceHiStation]

I think you have to call this. You only have to be right ~36% of the time for you to be correct. I could see a donk playing 9Ts, JJ, or a missed flush draw. But I'm going to go ahead and take a shot in the dark and guess specifics. Villain flips up A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and hero takes down a monster. This is where you all begin applauding. Just kidding, just a read/guess. Interesting hand though.

Later,
-Ace

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If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

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Isn't this completely backwards? A donk is more likely to have checked the set, or to have limped T6 or 96 UTG. A crafty player seems more likely to bluff his busted flush when he senses weakness. Care to explain your logic?

I guess I'm thinking c/c either way.

[FreakDaddy]

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If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

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Isn't this completely backwards? A donk is more likely to have checked the set, or to have limped T6 or 96 UTG. A crafty player seems more likely to bluff his busted flush when he senses weakness. Care to explain your logic?

I guess I'm thinking c/c either way.

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It's a question of what game level theory is my opponent thinking at. When I say crafty I'm implying that a good player understands that he's taking a risk on a draw heavy board, knowing that you'll think that he's drawing, in order to win a big pot. This is a great spot for that kind of play, and 'most' stars players are thinking players.

I don't consider a 'crafty' player to be someone who will bluff a busted flush draw. Any donk can do that.

Now considering that I just read hero (poster) say this was his first hand at the table, this becomes quite unlikely that a crafty player would make such a move. This hand becomes much more wind tunelled where I'd check/call the river.

[kurto]

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Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

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This begs the question... would a good player call with a set if he believes hero has the straight? He's only got 10 outs on the turn and calls nearly a pot sized bet... and, he can't expect to necessarily get paid off if the board pairs. So, the difficulty here is that a 'good' Stars players might already be out of the hand.

I also think a crafty player might have air and be planning to bet if either the board pairs or a heart hits.

[FreakDaddy]

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Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold.

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This begs the question... would a good player call with a set if he believes hero has the straight? He's only got 10 outs on the turn and calls nearly a pot sized bet... and, he can't expect to necessarily get paid off if the board pairs. So, the difficulty here is that a 'good' Stars players might already be out of the hand.

I also think a crafty player might have air and be planning to bet if either the board pairs or a heart hits.

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Well, hero is in small blind. It's very concievable that he has two pair or a smaller set. Villian doesn't know he has the proverable nuts (7,8).

1) On the turn, if someone is still betting pretty strong, you can make a decent judgement that you will get paid off.
2) Texture of the flop says hero has to have either two pair, or set. While JJ is remote.
3) Villian is likely ahead.

Villian isn't calling thinking, I'm definately beat, I better pair the board. If he doesn't fill up, I think he just calls the river, or if it's checked, he makes a 1/2 pot bet.

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Most likely you're beat on this board here though unless he's mega donk.

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No matter what, this guy is a mega donk, right? If he's ahead he either limped UTG w/ T6 or 96, or he checked his set on a super draw heavy board.

Obviously we can't be entirely comfortable w/ the river call, but I can't see folding. I'm very interested to see results.

[FreakDaddy]

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Most likely you're beat on this board here though unless he's mega donk.

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No matter what, this guy is a mega donk, right? If he's ahead he either limped UTG w/ T6 or 96, or he checked his set on a super draw heavy board.

Obviously we can't be entirely comfortable w/ the river call, but I can't see folding. I'm very interested to see results.

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Have you played on stars at 200nl or above? I have. You're thinking is quite backwards for this level. Most people understand the basics of the game. They understand draw heavy boards and they know how to maximize value on these kinds of flops or fold small pots when they get outdraws. Villian played this hand perfectly for a crafty player imo. He made it look like a busted flush draw on the river, whic was his plan right from the beginning (if I had to bet).

[AceHiStation]

I'm curious if villain reraises all-in with an A on river... I'm willing to bet he does. You just got unlucky on river, money would have gone in anyways. I think he played the flop/turn pretty poorly. Letting the flush draw come is awful IMO.

[FreakDaddy]

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I'm curious if villain reraises all-in with an A on river... I'm willing to bet he does. You just got unlucky on river, money would have gone in anyways. I think he played the flop/turn pretty poorly. Letting the flush draw come is awful IMO.

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He played it great imo. Hero is potting each street, so if hero is betting a draw, he's doing villians work. Villian gets to build a big pot with position, and push the river on a non-heart, which will likely get paid off. I'd play it the same.

I'd rather win a big pot with this flop texture, rather than win a small one. Villian likely puts hero on smaller set.

[flyangler]

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Have you played on stars at 200nl or above? I have. You're thinking is quite backwards for this level. Most people understand the basics of the game. They understand draw heavy boards and they know how to maximize value on these kinds of flops or fold small pots when they get outdraws. Villian played this hand perfectly for a crafty player imo. He made it look like a busted flush draw on the river, whic was his plan right from the beginning (if I had to bet).

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Crafty or not this is simply spewing until he hits his miracle 6. He was beat postflop (until the river) and just didn't know it. Slowplaying 99 from UTG is very weak IMO. I would have at least CR the turn if I were villain. I don't think Villain was thinking about possibly being beat at any time in the hand and will probably pat himself on the back for being so skilled a player. Giving hero the opportunity to draw (assuming villain put him on a draw) is just asking for trouble.