Is this river bet worth making?

#1 09-15-2005, 06:47 PM

This is from a Party 5+1 Rebuy, no reads on this guy.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (10 handed) converter

BB (t10629)
UTG (t2408)
UTG+1 (t13530)
Hero (t7535)
MP1 (t5700)
MP2 (t1240)
MP3 (t8185)
CO (t5095)
Button (t11510)
SB (t14205)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t600, 6 folds, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1300) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t700, BB calls t700.

Turn: (t2700) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t2700) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t1200...

My thinking here is that Villain may well have a medium pocket pair that looked good on the flop, but that became less and less appealing following the J turn and K river. When I bet again on the river, I represent something like AK, and hopefully can get him to drop a lower pair. Will I get away with this enough to be profitable, or should I just check it down and hope he was on a flush draw?

Exitonly · #2 09-15-2005, 06:52 PM

You have to win it a little less than 1 in 3 times for it to be profitable and i think you might be able to do thta... however i think you might win the same amouunt of chips like 1/4 or 1/5 times w/o risking anything just by checkcing behind. Just a thought.

nath · #3 09-15-2005, 06:58 PM

I like it.
A mid pair has every reason to think that you spiked your AK if that's what you were playing.
Only time it doesn't work is if he had a flush draw and caught the king on the end. (Or sometimes the jack, if he wants to call with second pair.)

I tend to think it's a middle pair, rather than some hand like KdQd, but with no reads it's impossible to say. Overall I like the play.