I get owned and a half.

in general I agree with you, that calling and hoping to hit one of two outs is not great strategy. but it is conceivable depending on your read, that CO could have pkt pair lower than QQ rather than AK or AJ type of hand. Also, I it may be a leak in my game, but I tend to subscribe to the SSHE loose call on flop raises so people don't play back at me all the time

[goofball]

All- Folding the flop is bad. Are we just going to automatically give him credit for the ace here? Given that, my options are checkcall down or 3betlead. I chose the latter, here's why. If I checkcall down I'm allowing him to play the river almost perfectly, checking behind hands I beat and betting hands I don't. If I'm going to just call the flop and the turn I think I should fold the river. If I get to the river with him he'll check behind TT or 76s or something else I beat, he'll bet A4 or something. I don't think he has pure air enoguh to justify a call on the river.

However, yes he may have the A but he'll also have second pair or a lower pocket pair sometimes. Remember it's a blind steal situation, he didn't raise UTG or anything. He might have me beat but he might not. Since I'm likely going ot go to showdown I should take the lead and force him to put in the same amount with his whole range.

I was frustrated with it last night, but looking at this now I don't even think the river bet is a mistake. The board is so dry he'll call me with every hand he's here with and that includes hands worse than mine. Even though I'm a dog when I'm called betting is still better. Think about it this way. If I bet he'll call with his worse hands and most of his better ones as well. If I check he'll bet his better hands and check his worse ones. Betfolding wins a big bet when I'm ahead and loses a big bet when I'm behind. Checkcalling wins a small fraction of a big bet when I'm ahead and loses a full big bet when behinid.

Come to think of it, I think IO remember reading about this kind of spot in HEPFAP or maybe one of mason's poker essays.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
All- Folding the flop is bad. Are we just going to automatically give him credit for the ace here? Given that, my options are checkcall down or 3betlead. I chose the latter, here's why. If I checkcall down I'm allowing him to play the river almost perfectly, checking behind hands I beat and betting hands I don't. If I'm going to just call the flop and the turn I think I should fold the river. If I get to the river with him he'll check behind TT or 76s or something else I beat, he'll bet A4 or something. I don't think he has pure air enoguh to justify a call on the river.

However, yes he may have the A but he'll also have second pair or a lower pocket pair sometimes. Remember it's a blind steal situation, he didn't raise UTG or anything. He might have me beat but he might not. Since I'm likely going ot go to showdown I should take the lead and force him to put in the same amount with his whole range.

I was frustrated with it last night, but looking at this now I don't even think the river bet is a mistake. The board is so dry he'll call me with every hand he's here with and that includes hands worse than mine. Even though I'm a dog when I'm called betting is still better. Think about it this way. If I bet he'll call with his worse hands and most of his better ones as well. If I check he'll bet his better hands and check his worse ones. Betfolding wins a big bet when I'm ahead and loses a big bet when I'm behind. Checkcalling wins a small fraction of a big bet when I'm ahead and loses a full big bet when behinid.

Come to think of it, I think IO remember reading about this kind of spot in HEPFAP or maybe one of mason's poker essays.

[/ QUOTE ]

GB, you can make an arguement for 3-betting flop and leading turn, not my prefered line, but I will give you that much. It's the river bet that I think is very wrong. This isn't just a steal situation. You capped preflop and 3-bet the flop. There are two overcards on the board to your queens and to any hand villian holds that you beat. Now, I ask you, what hands are calling a river bet?

[CptnNemo]

After flop I'd either check/raise or check/fold. On a hand like this I feel like the decision has to be made there. If you check raise, and he reraises, fold. If he calls it's showing some weakness, maybe ace with a lowish (J,Q, 10) kicker. I feel your getting more information for the same or less money.

[pokerjunky]

I like calling the flop raise and donk/folding the turn. 3 betting the flop makes worse 2 outer hands fold and better hands just call. If you bet the turn and he raises again you can probably fold correctly unless he likes to overuse the free showdown play. This strategy saves you one small bet when behind (as opposed to 3 betting the flop and leading the turn) and gains you one big bet when ahead since he will autobet the turn with hands that may have folded to the flop 3 bet.