River Plan on 2 Counterfeits

QTip · #1 11-30-2005, 04:49 PM

Unknown Villain

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
4 folds, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Button folds, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (7 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Compare that to this one:

Villain is 20/4/1.1

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls.

River: (8.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Yako · #2 11-30-2005, 04:58 PM

Hand 1:
This is a spot where I always feel like it's the right thing to check/fold, and yet instead of doing that, and instead of doing the next best thing, which is bet/fold in my opinion, I do the weakest option, check/call.

'Cause seriously, what can villain raise in this spot and then call down with that doesn't beat you? At best you're folding a split I think.

Hand 2:
I think it's much the same. Villain hardly raises pf, and then he calls your turn raise. If you think villain is capable of betting QQ/JJ in this spot, then I think you should check/call, and if you think villain is capable of calling with QQ or JJ, then you should bet/fold. If you think villain will never call OR bet with QQ JJ, then you should check/fold.

EDIT: I didn't see the second one... Either that or Q decided to be mean and added it after my post! :P

callmedonnie · #3 11-30-2005, 05:09 PM

I c/f this type of thing other night. It was painful but I slept well.

W. Deranged · #4 11-30-2005, 05:24 PM

Let's do a comparative exercise:

-In hand #1, there is an obvious draw possible on the flop. In hand #2, there is not. The general board texture in hand #2 is such that it suggests to me that the betting will be generally more representative of hand strength than in hand #1.

-In hand #1, villain raised the flop, whereas in hand #2 villain only continued to bet as would be expected of the pre-flop raiser.

-In hand #1, villain has not really done anything to indicate he has a hand he must showdown. In hand #2, when villain calls your turn check-raise, he almost certainly indicates that he has a hand that he is intending to showdown.

With all these factors, I think it is pretty clear to me that hand #2 is a check-fold. Villain pretty clearly has a hand that at least contains an A or K, as a seemingly rational, somewhat tightish/passive villain likely could find a fold with a hand like QQ here.

Hand #1 is harder, particularly against an unknown. I am certain that betting is not correct, as once villain calls the turn I don't think we're ever folding out a better hand on a seemingly innocuous river card (any J or good T is showing down), and the running pair means that any kind of heart or straight draw could not have picked up a weaker hand with which he'd make a crying call. So I basically think we're never getting called by a worse hand if we bet, and we're never folding a better one.

The real question then is whether hand #1 is check-fold or check-call. Since the board is so draw heavy and no draw hit, there are many opponents against whom checking here makes great sense to induce a bluff from a missed draw. Getting 8-1 on a river call I might try to snap off a bluff, and again, it's the board texture that would motivate that decision.

QTip · #5 11-30-2005, 05:25 PM

I like c/cing the 1st one.

#6 11-30-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Let's do a comparative exercise:

-In hand #1, there is an obvious draw possible on the flop. In hand #2, there is not. The general board texture in hand #2 is such that it suggests to me that the betting will be generally more representative of hand strength than in hand #1.

-In hand #1, villain raised the flop, whereas in hand #2 villain only continued to bet as would be expected of the pre-flop raiser.

-In hand #1, villain has not really done anything to indicate he has a hand he must showdown. In hand #2, when villain calls your turn check-raise, he almost certainly indicates that he has a hand that he is intending to showdown.

With all these factors, I think it is pretty clear to me that hand #2 is a check-fold. Villain pretty clearly has a hand that at least contains an A or K, as a seemingly rational, somewhat tightish/passive villain likely could find a fold with a hand like QQ here.

Hand #1 is harder, particularly against an unknown. I am certain that betting is not correct, as once villain calls the turn I don't think we're ever folding out a better hand on a seemingly innocuous river card (any J or good T is showing down), and the running pair means that any kind of heart or straight draw could not have picked up a weaker hand with which he'd make a crying call. So I basically think we're never getting called by a worse hand if we bet, and we're never folding a better one.

The real question then is whether hand #1 is check-fold or check-call. Since the board is so draw heavy and no draw hit, there are many opponents against whom checking here makes great sense to induce a bluff from a missed draw. Getting 8-1 on a river call I might try to snap off a bluff, and again, it's the board texture that would motivate that decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, you do post well. Even if you play only somewhat as good as your posts, you still must be great.

W. Deranged · #7 11-30-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like c/cing the 1st one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. And check-folding the second?

Nick C · #8 11-30-2005, 05:45 PM

I like a check-call in the first hand, since we got raised on a pretty draw-heavy flop. However, if Villain actually bets the river, I'm not going to be very optimistic while I'm calling.

In Hand 2, I think I would bet-fold. Possibly this is tossing a BB away, but Villain raises preflop so rarely that QQ-TT must make up a fair share of his range, and some people get stubborn and don't release big pocket pairs even when it's pretty certain they're beat.

Still, AQ does seem pretty likely here. And if you check-fold, you may even get to see that hand, if Villain fears you're hoping to checkraise again.