Hand...

[Lmn55d]

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An aggressive stealer could open any 2, continue on the flop, pick up a FD on the turn, and C/R bluff the river as a last chance to win the hand

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99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

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An aggressive player could play a PP like this. An aggressive player could play a 5 like this, or a hand with a J in it like this.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.

[Catt]

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99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

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Yes, many would. But your hyperbole is too much. There's a decent subset of these players who will ck-cl the the turn planning on C/Ring any river (flush or otherwise), IMHO.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.

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I see no reason why they would want to do so either without a read on Krishan that is inaccurate (i.e., that he's no good and will call the river C/R with goofy stuff). But because I don't see why they would, doesn't mean that they don't have a reason. You don't think aggressive guys try and get an extra bet from a (presumably) unknown instead of just looking to SD a possible winner? I think that's more likely with a naked 5, but think you'll see this line from Ax a lot, and from a J sometimes, and from a PP often enough not to dismiss ot from the range.

Do you agree with Stellar that an unknown's range given the action and board makes reraising out of the question?

[Lmn55d]

Well I'm not saying it's impossible that you will be raised by a jack or pocket pair here, but I just really can't remember it ever happening to me in a similar spot. As for the comment about the flush draw, I think if he's aggressive he seriously bets or checkraises about 90-95% of the time. What do you think that number is?

I don't think reraising is "out of the question" at all. But I think if your 3bet is called or reraised, you're winning here (not including splitting which we can ignore) somewhere between 50-60% of the time. Thats just a guess though...I really don't know.

[Catt]

I think 75+% you'll see a bet or a C/R from a FD here - which is still a biggish number but not quite as high as I guess you think.

And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped.

[Lmn55d]

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And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped

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Ya, what I was just trying to say with that 50-60 statement (which was a little cryptic), was that I don't think you are good the requisite 66% here if we assume villain never folds, and always reraises with better hands. If he folds some of the hands you are ahead of , we need to be ahead a greater percentage.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
An aggressive stealer could open any 2, continue on the flop, pick up a FD on the turn, and C/R bluff the river as a last chance to win the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
An aggressive player could play a PP like this. An aggressive player could play a 5 like this, or a hand with a J in it like this.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.

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This is essentially my answer too.

That a steal-minded PFR Villain would not represent the ace by betting (or rarely checkraising) the turn is shocking. I think the inference that checkcall means too good to bluff is very strong. Of course Villain could have the flush draw if he is very passive about semibluffing, but then he won't be bluff checkraising the river.

There is also the issue that checkraise bluffers don't usually call reraises.

This 3-bet needs to make its money off of Ax and underpair hands that went for the exotic delayed value sexy with a moderate made hand. Far be it from me to say that this play is never made, after all everything happens in this game, but offhand I can't remember ever seeing it.

Once again there is the issue that one-pair hands may fold. Overall you will virtually always be capped when you are behind, virtually never be capped when you are scooping, and will frequently not be paid when you are best. The odds are really stacked against this 3-bet.

[krishanleong]

Stellar and Lemon are enough to sway me. The lower the limit, the more likely the donkey and the better the 3-bet. I think at 10/20+ you start to get to the point where the 3-bet is -EV because there aren't enough donks to cover. I guess this is another varient of the good but second best hand theme.

Krishan

[sweetjazz]

Just a preflop comment...while a read would be helpful, I think defending with 92s here is fine. The good odds you are getting plus position make it a pretty marginal call.

I would fold 92s and often much better hands if I were SB.