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#21
10-11-2005, 04:54 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
The saints are impossible to figure out heh. Last year just when you think they are horrible they finish the year with a 4 game win streak and knock off the panthers from the playoff hunt on the road. The panthers had won like 7 of their last 8 or something. Then this year they do the same thing on opening day on the road then go get their ass kicked by winless teams. Ill add the falcons to my teaser but the just might win by 3 which would [censored] up the parlay.
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#22
10-11-2005, 06:40 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
[ QUOTE ]
This game is quite definitely a lock. [/ QUOTE ]   I think we can all agree that this is probably the lock of the decade, according to the Bar Stool Pundits. And we know how we love our BSP's around here... FWIW, Wagerline only has 80% of the consensus money on Atlanta. Thats far and away the largest consensus differential of the season (95% confidence factor, I watch wagerline pretty faithfully but its possible I missed one).
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#24
10-11-2005, 06:47 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
[ QUOTE ]
Gift of the Week A road favorite will NEVER be a gift. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts exactly, sublime.
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#25
10-11-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Home field means nothing for New Orleans. [/ QUOTE ] New Orleans 19, Buffalo 7 SAN ANTONIO (AP) -- Aaron Brooks saw an opening and bolted. Crossing the goal line just ahead of a defender, he spiked the ball and raised his arms to celebrate. That's when he heard it: the deafening roar of a crowd cheering for the New Orleans Saints. And for one Sunday afternoon at least, San Antonio and the Alamodome felt like home for Brooks and his nomadic teammates. "From the time we stepped out of the locker room going out there to warm up, they really were into it," said Brooks, who scored the Saints' only touchdown in a 19-7 win over the Buffalo Bills. "They were excited about us being here and they embraced us," Brooks said. "We thank them for it."... Tens of thousands of gold pompoms were distributed to the 58,688 in attendance at the 65,000-seat stadium. Fans used to cheering the NBA champions San Antonio Spurs did the wave and deafening chants of "Dee-Fense" forced the Bills (1-3) to take a delay-of-game penalty in the first quarter. "It was a mix of New Orleans people and San Antonio people," Saints coach Jim Haslett said. "I think you saw the result. It helped our football team." By the fourth quarter, the crowd was on its feet when the Saints stuffed Willis McGahee on fourth-and-inches, taking possession for a drive that would lead to Carney's third field goal, making it 16-7 with 5 minutes left. "We're still the New Orleans Saints," Stallworth said. "New Orleans is still cheering for us and we have San Antonio on our side as well." [/ QUOTE ] I would say you have a point, but J.P. Losman was QBing for the Bills that game. IMO, quite possibly the worst QB in football as of now.
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#26
10-11-2005, 07:47 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
[ QUOTE ]
J.P. Losman was QBing for the Bills that game. IMO, quite possibly the worst QB in football as of now. [/ QUOTE ] The 19-7 result is meaningless. Read what the players actually say about playing somewhere that you don't think affords any home field advantage: "From the time we stepped out of the locker room going out there to warm up, they really were into it," said Brooks.
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#27
10-11-2005, 07:49 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, quite possibly the worst QB in football as of now. [/ QUOTE ] Losman has some Alex Smith statistics that he'd like to discuss with you re: the "right now" portion of your statement... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#28
10-11-2005, 07:50 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
On paper this is most definitely a lock. But they don't play the games on paper. I am a contrarian player. This doesn't always work for me, but it works enough of the time for me to have success with this method of handicapping. Here are some things that worry me about taking Atlanta:
1. Its too obvious. On paper, its a mismatch. Atlanta is a strong team, lost a tough battle to NE at home, has a decent backup quarterback, and will be looking to avenge this tough loss. But they are no giant killers. They beat the Iggles on Monday night, but we've recently seen that the Iggles are not as strong as in years past. 2. This is a divisional matchup. These teams are familiar with each other. These ATL/NO matchups usually are high scoring, and (off top of my head) I believe they often come down to a 2-4 point margin of victory. Perhaps someone can provide recent trends on scoring margins, success of road team in this series, etc... 3. Here is another trend play to consider. I sometimes look to play on the team that lost by the widest margin the week prior. I look for inflated line value here. A lot of time the public is all over the opponent of a team that got shellacked the week prior, and the team that got shellacked is in turn looking to redeem themselves. Hence you have (extra) built in line value here. New Orleans would most definitely fit the bill here. I would love to see a trend on the success of an NFL team covering in the week after a 30+ point loss. Or a trend on the success (ATS) of the team that lost by the biggest margin, the following week. 4. This is the NFL. No matter how bad they looked against the Packers, these are still professional ball players. Its too early to tell if these guys have hung up their cleats for the season. Now if they do get smoked by 4 TDs or more this week, perhaps thats an indication, but one bad loss does not a season make. As a contrarian, I just could not bet the Falcons this week. That doesn't mean I'm playing the Saints, but I could very easily see them somehow rebound and play a tight game here. The Falcons were not very adept at stopping the Patriots this week at home, and they have shown some suspect defensive play this year. I wish you the best on your wager, but this in my opinion is most definitely not a lock.
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#29
10-11-2005, 08:17 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
[ QUOTE ]
2. This is a divisional matchup. These teams are familiar with each other. These ATL/NO matchups usually are high scoring, and (off top of my head) I believe they often come down to a 2-4 point margin of victory. Perhaps someone can provide recent trends on scoring margins, success of road team in this series, etc... [/ QUOTE ] I'm always happy to do 5 minutes of research on scoring trends. As an arbitrary limit I went back to 2000: New Orleans is 5-5 ATS since 2000 against ATL, 2-3 at home. The road team is 6-4 ATS since 2000. The O/U is 3-7 since 2000, 1-4 for games in NO. Take from this what you will.
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#30
10-11-2005, 09:06 PM
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Re: Gift of the Week: Atlanta vs. New Orleans
There's no free money in the NFL.
If you disagree strongly with a widely available line, your first thought should be, "I am wrong." P.S. If I were going to bet this game I'd bet the Saints, but I don't bet on games involving the Falcons. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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