AJs UTG

[baronzeus]

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soiler gave me some numbers, and his EV of c/r the button hu is basically even, and he thinks that the CO folds a pair 90% which is also even

basically i just wasted a lot of time on something that doesn't even matter

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you should know that in marginal situations i always take the highest variance option [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

but seriously, i think this may have an EV somewhere between -0.05BB to 0.20 BB. it probably doesnt matter much but its fun.

and i obviously didnt have time to do these calculations in my head in the 3 seconds between the time that he bet and the time that I raised. i just went with what felt right in the situation, and i got lucky.

[oreogod]

The one question I have though, is if CO has a pair, even if hes an unthinking player...is he really folding a pair that often to this kind of action...where the turn gets checked through, then on the river Baron goes for a CR. Dunno, I think there is a lot of doubt that u might be getting called more often than u think.

But Im just thinking of what Id do, u probably get called more often by loose or thinking players, slightly more often then u think...but weak players u probably increase the rate they will fold, though...if it improves your winning chances a bit than, whatever...but thats my only contention in this hand.

[sthief09]

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The one question I have though, is if CO has a pair, even if hes an unthinking player...is he really folding a pair that often to this kind of action...where the turn gets checked through, then on the river Baron goes for a CR. Dunno, I think there is a lot of doubt that u might be getting called more often than u think.

But Im just thinking of what Id do, u probably get called more often by loose or thinking players, slightly more often then u think...but weak players u probably increase the rate they will fold, though...if it improves your winning chances a bit than, whatever...but thats my only contention in this hand.

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he's probably calling somewhere between 5 and 15% which has almost no effect in either direction (good or bad). his EV vs the button is some small negative number, so we're probably looking at an overall EV of +/- a few bucks. if I were to rate someone doing it vs someone not doing it, it's a lot better to be doing it because it shows good wherewithall at the table. I wouldn't ahve tried to squeeze the CO out, assuming he's a loose idiot and the button could have a pair or something.

I have read and heard that Nate bluffs a ton on the river. even though this play is so close to neutral it proves that river bluffs are probably a lot more profitable than they seem.

my calcs are still wrong though because I didn't factor the times that they both have a hand

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I think u are mixing compitent, with a weak unthinking player. Both are different.


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Hi Oreogod,

No, I am taking competent to mean 'not a terrible player, but not a good player either.'
Notice that the cutoff probably isn't a great player given his action in the hand, and the fact that he has been in all of the few hands that Baron has watched. So he's either bad, or merely competent. You can't expect a player such as this to always figure out the meaning of the bet and check-raise on the river and make a correct overcall. If he's bad, me may call because he just likes his pair. If he's competent, he's more likely to look at the double bet and think "there's no way my weak pair is good here" and fold.

-v

[baronzeus]

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he's more likely to look at the double bet and think "there's no way my weak pair is good here" and fold.

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this is my main point oreo, i think he just looks at the river spot hes in as a vacuum-like situation. you are giving him way too much or way too little credit here.
yes, these are good points

[oreogod]

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he's more likely to look at the double bet and think "there's no way my weak pair is good here" and fold.

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this is my main point oreo, i think he just looks at the river spot hes in as a vacuum-like situation. you are giving him way too much or way too little credit here.
yes, these are good points

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Yeah you're probably right.