Was Villain Right?

[krishanleong]

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1. Against big unpaired aces, he doesn't have 7 outs. He has 3 outs (and this assumes the 7 is clean)

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How do we not have 7 outs against AK?

Krishan - 89

[Derek in NYC]

Sorry, I was thinking only of the dominated ace, and analyzing the gutshot separately.

[Shawsy]

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Show me the math. No way A-high unimproved is good against this three-bettor, and no way his ace outs are clean. This is an easy fold.


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Let me first say I don't like the raise on the flop after SB three bet preflop. I think the chance of getting 3-bet is just too high. If the flop bet is just called, then the pot at the turn would be smaller - 4.5BB instead of 6.5BB, and I agree there would be an easy fold. In this case though, hero gets 7.5 to 1 to call the turn bet.

Pretty clear to me that villain has an overpair or a strong ace - AK, AQ, AJ, or AT (which would be bad for hero). AA is somewhat less likely than other overpairs since hero holds an A. Still possible though. Against AA there are four outs only.

Against an overpair other than AA, hero has 3 A outs, plus 4 outs for the gutshot. Against a strong A hero still has as many as 7 outs, since the gutshot, or the crumby little 6 kicker could do the trick. In either case, other than the gutshot draw, the other outs aren't clean, so you would have to make some adjustment.

I've never been particularly good at these adjustments - can we call it about 5.5 outs? Or is that too generous? Getting 7.5 to one, though, there are enough pot odds to call with between 5 and 5.5 outs.

Add another bet for implied odds, and the call is not really bad at all. I don't like how the pot got so large in the first place, but evaluating the turn play on its own, I think there is a call.

[DMBFan23]

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The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good

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I think this leaves us in an interesting position if we hit an Ace, or particularly a 6, and are bet into.

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Are we really paying off the river with a 6?

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no, I'm just saying, if he has a big A we're screwed if we hit the A, if he has pockets we are screwed if we hit the 6. I personally don't pay off a 6, no. I just though it was more interesting because of how often people will bet overcards UI and optimal bluffing frequency and all that theoretical stuff

EDIT: I'll elaborate. are we paying off a river 6? if we are not, then we need to factor in 0 outs versus the big cards, and we lose a bet when we river an ace and he bets it. if we are, then we need to factor in that we have 3 outs on the river (which may be worth 0 or 1 bets depending on how he plays the river, and how we respond), and we lose a bet when he bets his overpair. so our EV there, IF we choose to count the 6s as outs ever, is dependant on how often he'll bet the river UI with overcards. personally I just don't count the 6s as outs

[QTip]

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THANK YOU. Evan's post is clearly correct as is his next one. You are far from "guaranteed" to get two bets if you hit the ace also.

Jeff

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We don't need 2 bets. The implied odds are strickly from the straight.

Krishan

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You will not get 2 bets on average when you river a straight, you just won't.

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I agree. However, I think it's easy to say that we'll get more than 1 bet on average.

[krishanleong]

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THANK YOU. Evan's post is clearly correct as is his next one. You are far from "guaranteed" to get two bets if you hit the ace also.

Jeff

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We don't need 2 bets. The implied odds are strickly from the straight.

Krishan

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You will not get 2 bets on average when you river a straight, you just won't.

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I agree. However, I think it's easy to say that we'll get more than 1 bet on average.

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Maybe like 1.8

Krishan

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Anyone who says preflop is wrong is too tight.

This should be an easy raise from this position.

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In a 4 handed game, UTG is the c/o. I don't normally raise A6o from the c/o. My default is A8o. Call me too tight if you want, but don't say it's an easy raise.

[sammy_g]

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Or villain has 88, 55, 44, or TT and you're drawing dead to your gutshot. Your ace outs are tainted and its not because villain has JJ-KK.

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I don't think a guy with these stats 3 bets 55 or 44. So we're only really bad against 88, TT, and AA.

AA, TT, 88 -- 12 combos (4 outs)

99, JJ, QQ, KK -- 24 combos (7 outs)

12 * 4 = 48
24 * 7 = 168
48 + 168 = 216
216 / (12 + 24) = 6 outs

We have on average close to 6 outs on the turn -- even more if SB might be going a little nuts with AK or AQ or something. Plus when we are behind a set, we usually collect 2 bets on the river when we hit. Even if you only get 1 bet on average against AA, the turn call has to be correct.

Folding the turn is an error.

[QTip]

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The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good

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I think this leaves us in an interesting position if we hit an Ace, or particularly a 6, and are bet into.

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Are we really paying off the river with a 6?

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no, I'm just saying, if he has a big A we're screwed if we hit the A, if he has pockets we are screwed if we hit the 6. I personally don't pay off a 6, no. I just though it was more interesting because of how often people will bet overcards UI and optimal bluffing frequency and all that theoretical stuff

EDIT: I'll elaborate. are we paying off a river 6? if we are not, then we need to factor in 0 outs versus the big cards, and we lose a bet when we river an ace and he bets it. if we are, then we need to factor in that we have 3 outs on the river (which may be worth 0 or 1 bets depending on how he plays the river, and how we respond), and we lose a bet when he bets his overpair. so our EV there, IF we choose to count the 6s as outs ever, is dependant on how often he'll bet the river UI with overcards. personally I just don't count the 6s as outs

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If someone does count the 6s as outs, I think that can be weighted to certainly less than a full out. I really didn't put much into the 6s in the hand; however, I'm fairly certain I would have paid off.

[meanjean]

Here's a silly way to look at it: Do you think that if this hand was played from after the flop on 1000 times would you have a profit?