Was Villain Right?

[Evan]

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I'm never raising a rivered ace. Villian will always pay off with an overpair. Villian will always bet with an overpair.

I think these are safe assumptions.

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Villain may often chec-call an overpair, I think that's a fair assumption. Villain may also have AK/AQ, I don't think we're giving these hands enough credit (even though the flop play makes it unlikely, it's possible).

I just feel like we need a whole lot of things to go just right to make the turn a call.

[Jeffage]

THANK YOU. Evan's post is clearly correct as is his next one. You are far from "guaranteed" to get two bets if you hit the ace also.

Jeff

[Evan]

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The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good

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I think this leaves us in an interesting position if we hit an Ace, or particularly a 6, and are bet into.

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Are we really paying off the river with a 6?

[Trix]

I dont think it´s that bad. I probably wouldn´t play preflop, depends how button/BB plays.
The flop is fine if you think you can get him off a better A.
Turn isn´t that close really. You get close to 4 outs for the gutshot and a little more than two for the A. You are going to win 2 bets when you hit the 7. Your action on the river will probably be around +2/3 BB when you hit the A. Since only one bet goes in with most of his holdings.

[krishanleong]

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THANK YOU. Evan's post is clearly correct as is his next one. You are far from "guaranteed" to get two bets if you hit the ace also.

Jeff

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We don't need 2 bets. The implied odds are strickly from the straight.

Krishan

[Evan]

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THANK YOU. Evan's post is clearly correct as is his next one. You are far from "guaranteed" to get two bets if you hit the ace also.

Jeff

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We don't need 2 bets. The implied odds are strickly from the straight.

Krishan

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You will not get 2 bets on average when you river a straight, you just won't.

[Derek in NYC]

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Why 1.5? You aren't putting villian on a range. You are just saying well hell I have an overcard, I'll discount it to 1.5 outs and it's a fold. That's not good enough. The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good. Against AA I have 3 outs. Then weight them. Add in 2 bets worth of implied odds for the straight and see what you come up with.

I would discount set hands just because I think most would try and cr the turn on that board.

Krishan

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1. Against big unpaired aces, he doesn't have 7 outs. He has 3 outs (and this assumes the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is clean)

2. More to our point of disagreement, I dont think dominated aces are the trouble, because the action on the flop is not really consistent with AK, AQ, even if suited, and the preflop action is not consistent with A5, A8, or A4. The problem with calling is the possibility that villain holds a set. If you want to talk hand distribution, 55, 44, 88, and TT are all consistent with the flop action, and there are a total of 12 combinations of these hands, plus 3 more combos of AA. This is a total of 15 combos he's drawing dead against absent the gutshot. For JJ-KK, there are 18 combos. This is a tossup, and that's why the overs are worth 50% here.

I would do it myself, but I dont have Pokerstove. Will somebody bake the odds on the turn if you put villain on 44, 55, 88, TT-AA. Then for run it again for the same range but add in A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and 99.

[krishanleong]

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We don't need 2 bets. The implied odds are strickly from the straight.

Krishan

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You will not get 2 bets on average when you river a straight, you just won't.

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Don't tell me he just won't. Tell me the hands that are in his range, that he'll check on the river fearing a straight made by a 6 by a preflop raiser who raised the flop.

Or is he bet/folding aces here? I value bet everything I've played this way so far and I'm paying off a raise. What hands are you playing differently?

Krishan

[sammy_g]

I like every street. The only hands a SB with those stats could hold that make this play incorrect are AA and 88, and even against those, you have 4 outs and great implied odds.

A8 or AT would be bad, but he doesn't have those. I don't think this player would 3 bet A8 preflop, and I don't think he would 3 bet AT on the flop.

I like a flop raise, planning to bet the turn if he just calls so maybe he lays down hands like AJ or KQ. It's a good semibluff with 7 outs. The pot is big enough to try this.

Against hands like QQ you have 7 outs. You have 7 outs even against hands that dominate you like AK.

Folding at any point in this hand would be a mistake.

[Lmn55d]

folding the flop would suck. You are getting 8:1 and have at least 4 outs. With implied odds (even if you have 4 outs you'd only need to make up 1.5 BB on average) it's an easy call.