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#21
10-04-2005, 11:30 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
I'd be tempted to fold the flop. You don't have odds for the gutshot and the SB is saying pretty clearly your Ace might not even be good.
I get why you raised the flop, I might have done the same, but in hindsight I think you had to let this go. The turn is a clear fold. Ace outs are questionable, so the odds just aren't there to call. 
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#22
10-04-2005, 11:31 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Wow. I'd fold preflop. I'd just call the flop. I'd fold the turn. I think you played this one really bad. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks Evan. 4 handed I thought the PF raise might be decent...guess not. On the flop, I was hoping I could get a free turn from overs....not so. On the turn, I thought I could easily have 7 outs there. Thoughts on my thoughts. [/ QUOTE ] I'd raise from the button, so I supose it can't be that bad, but I still don't like it. I don't think your draw is strong enough or the pot is big enough to care about free cards. There's no way you can give yourself 7 outs. I think its more in the 5-5.5 range. Even with very generous implied odds assumptions this is neutral at best.
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#23
10-04-2005, 11:33 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm also surely going to get 2 more if I hit my straight [/ QUOTE ] Unless he check-calls the staight-making card. Also, are you raising an ace? Is he always paying off? Are you calling a 3 bet? Assuming you always get 2 bets on the river when you improve is really ambitious.
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#24
10-04-2005, 11:33 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Or villain has 88, 55, 44, or TT and you're drawing dead to your gutshot. Your ace outs are tainted and its not because villain has JJ-KK.
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#25
10-04-2005, 11:37 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
7.5BB on the turn. He has 4 outs to the str8, and 1.5 outs to the ace. Now consider the reverse implied from the club redraw on 4th street, or the possibility that he will hit his ace but be drawing dead to a set, and it's a fold. [/ QUOTE ] Why 1.5? You aren't putting villian on a range. You are just saying well hell I have an overcard, I'll discount it to 1.5 outs and it's a fold. That's not good enough. The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good. Against AA I have 3 outs. Then weight them. Add in 2 bets worth of implied odds for the straight and see what you come up with. I would discount set hands just because I think most would try and cr the turn on that board. Krishan
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#26
10-04-2005, 11:38 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm also surely going to get 2 more if I hit my straight [/ QUOTE ] Unless he check-calls the staight-making card. Also, are you raising an ace? Is he always paying off? Are you calling a 3 bet? Assuming you always get 2 bets on the river when you improve is really ambitious. [/ QUOTE ] I'm never raising a rivered ace. Villian will always pay off with an overpair. Villian will always bet with an overpair. I think these are safe assumptions. Krishan - 90
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#27
10-04-2005, 11:42 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Or villain has 88, 55, 44, or TT and you're drawing dead to your gutshot. Your ace outs are tainted and its not because villain has JJ-KK. [/ QUOTE ] Are you saying villain 3 bet the flop and leads the turn with a big A here or what?
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#28
10-04-2005, 11:44 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good [/ QUOTE ] I think this leaves us in an interesting position if we hit an Ace, or particularly a 6, and are bet into.
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#30
10-04-2005, 11:46 AM
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Re: Was Villain Right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The way to do this is to say againt TT-KK I have 7 outs. Against Big unpaired aces I have 7 outs because if I pair my kicker I'm good [/ QUOTE ] I think this leaves us in an interesting position if we hit an Ace, or particularly a 6, and are bet into. [/ QUOTE ] Not really. We just call. Krishan
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