This cold streak

thomastem · #1 10-29-2003, 01:14 PM

I have to vent to keep sanity. It's just about 2 months now that I'm going through just a terrible run.

During this time I conitnue to review my play. Just like when I'm winning there is some tinkering and improving going on but my play has remained consistant.

I've also dropped down in stakes 2 levels as well.

Today I had 12 hands in a row where I led to the river and got beat, all but 2 were heads up.

The day before yesterday I went almost 300 hands before I had pockets I could play with.

These 2 things happen but consistantly for 2 months to a player playing 2 tables about 30 hours a week.

I have had posters on here tell me that they saw me play solid poker but just getting a run of bad luck, at least for what they saw. There is no reason to think they are lying when they tell me this.

I have also had people on party that keep following me, 2 have said that it is because the site has me "marked" for bad beats. For the record I view these 2 like people who believe somone is hot and changes their play, profitable to me. However these 2 are making a killing off me with 8-4 off hitting runner, runner.

How many of you have gone though a spell this long with consistancy under these conditions? Any advice?

Lebronomania · #2 10-29-2003, 01:23 PM

Yeah, I had a bad streak for the first two years I played poker. Somehow my luck changed after that.

If you're really interested in knowing whether your just having some bad luck, or whether you need some improvement, I'd be willing to review some of your hand histories, free of charge of course. PM me if you're interested.

doormat · #3 10-29-2003, 01:34 PM

If you play long enough things like this are going to happen to you statistically. You hope that they happen later rather than sooner. A man I consider to be the best limit stud player in the world never had a serious streak for 20 years, then lost money for nearly a year playing almost daily. I know of several teams of expert blackjack players who have lost for many months when it was certain that they had the edge. It happens. Fluctuations can't be avoided, but you need to maintain an even psychological keel and be careful not to let it affect your play.

doormat

thomastem · #4 10-29-2003, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I had a bad streak for the first two years I played poker. Somehow my luck changed after that.

If you're really interested in knowing whether your just having some bad luck, or whether you need some improvement, I'd be willing to review some of your hand histories, free of charge of course. PM me if you're interested.

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate the offer.

I had been profitable for over 2 years prior to this streak. The general difference is that while staying aggressive and leading to the river I am losing way more showdowns. Further this image that I'm going to lose even if I flop trip Aces from opponents is a concern. Trip Queens and up in the last 2 months on the flop are currently running me 25% win rate, 14% if we go to the river. The only way I could get more aggressive with these hands is if I start throwing chairs while I raise and re-raise.

thomastem · #5 10-29-2003, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It happens. Fluctuations can't be avoided, but you need to maintain an even psychological keel and be careful not to let it affect your play.

doormat

[/ QUOTE ]

Two good points. Hearing that this isn't longer than long helps. I don't play on tilt, when I hit tilt I hit the little x button.

ZManODS · #6 10-29-2003, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Today I had 12 hands in a row where I led to the river and got beat

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe the problem isnt how you are playing the hands, rather the hands you play with. If you see 12 hands to the river in a row then you are either getting a silly amount of great cards in a row, or you are playing too loose. I think we both know what it is.

Or it can simply be you lose one hand and go on tilt then you "have to win it back" by playing the next hand... aka playing loose.

thomastem · #7 10-29-2003, 01:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Today I had 12 hands in a row where I led to the river and got beat

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe the problem isnt how you are playing the hands, rather the hands you play with. If you see 12 hands to the river in a row then you are either getting a silly amount of great cards in a row, or you are playing too loose. I think we both know what it is.

Or it can simply be you lose one hand and go on tilt then you "have to win it back" by playing the next hand... aka playing loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

These 12 hands aren't in a row they are during a 2 hour 2 table session, my bad I should have said 12 of the flops I saw in succession.

My flop% was 18%. 4 were top pair, 3were top 2 pair, 3 were trips, 2 were straights (one with raindow flop). Of these 12 7 were runner, runner.

I know people have sessions like these. This one itself is no biggie. It is a good example of the consistant sessions I've been having the last 2 months.

OrangeHeat · #8 10-29-2003, 02:02 PM

Hi thomastem,

While I have not lost money overall lately I have had a similar run on party for the past two months...leading to the river to be consistently shown 2 and 4 outers at the 15/30 level. Feel like the wheels are spinning...

Initially I thought the games had gone tougher, but after looking through the percentages - many of them have gotten looser. It's like playing 3/6 again at some tables - thus more longshots coming through by default. Not sure where the influx came from - maybe some newbies moving up levels or the WPT...

Your bad run will end - mine has in the last week I have had a number of hands actually hold up and with all the action the profits are more than making up for the two months of stagnation (BB/hour for the two months now averages 1/table/hour).

I hope your still making enuff to feed the animals - I'd hate to see Crazed Phil begging for feed on the side of the highway.

Keep venting - it's the best way to keep sane!

Adde · #9 10-29-2003, 03:15 PM

I don't know what limits you play. I normally play 2-3 tables 2/4 at Party, and when running bad I do some or all of the following:

- Play less tables.
- Move down a limit, or even two.
- Play less high cards and more draws.
- Play less marginal hands (those that usually will show a small +EV in the long run, but also contributes to the larger swings).
- Play more passive.
- Bluff much less.
- Respect other players more.

In general, I look at a bad run as something I have got to live through. Taking a week off is of course a good thing for other reasons, but when coming back to the tables again, it is still the continuation of that one lifelong session of poker. If I have to live it through, I want it to cost me as little as possible. If I loose 12/12 showdowns, I might as well make it cheaper to see them. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

adde

thomastem · #10 10-29-2003, 03:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what limits you play. I normally play 2-3 tables 2/4 at Party, and when running bad I do some or all of the following:

- Play less tables.
- Move down a limit, or even two.
- Play less high cards and more draws.
- Play less marginal hands (those that usually will show a small +EV in the long run, but also contributes to the larger swings).
- Play more passive.
- Bluff much less.
- Respect other players more.

adde

[/ QUOTE ]

I like everything you said with the exception of passive. My experience and the books and articles I've read go against becoming weak/tight.