Preflop confusion

[J_V]

Here is a hand many would consider boring. Yet when I asked two of the best limit holdem players I know, I got two completely different answers.

And aggressive but fairly tight player (no stats) raises UTG+3 (i would guess (22 12 2). Everyone folds to you in the small blind and you see 99.

The big blind is a big fish very very capable of calling two more bets. He has stats of (56 13 1). What is your best option?

One player said calling was definitely an option. Another player said calling sucked bad. Both players beat every game under the sun. Is it close?


The rest of the hand was interesting to me and I'll post it later in a separate thread. I'm considered right now about preflop play.

[DeeJ]

Well I would say raise for value because if the fish comes along, fine, if he doesn't, that's fine too. 99 is tough to play with 2 or more overcards with 3 players in, but it's still a good hand.

[nokia1566]

I call because I want the fish in the pot.

[J_V]

Is it really ok if the fish comes along? Now you are going to be out of position in a 3 way pot against a possibly better hand.

This raiser also happens to cap a wide range of hands too but that is a side collarly.

Let's say the fish will play his top 35% of hands, would you rather have him in or out and how close is it?

[Boris]

Good question. If the big fish tends to go off after the flop for lots of bets and play aggressively, I would call. If he is more passive then 3 bet and pray for a sweet flop.

[mdeck]

I could b ewrong, I think if the fish doesn't get out of line too often, wouldn't the presence of the fish help in that the third player in the pot keeps the TAG from exploiting his positional advantage?

The presence of the third player should make the TAG play more straightforwardly and therefore make it easier to determine when you are and aren't good with a middle pair like 99.

Now assuming having the third player is a good thing considering position and the likelihood of overcards coming out on the board, I'm torn between 3betting and just calling. Does the equity you gain when the fish cold calls your 3bet outweigh the presumed lost value when the fish folds to your 3bet and you go heads up with the TAG OOP (and in bad shape if he caps)?

[Peter_rus]

I'd raise here regardless profile of BB.

According to PokerStove, your equity vs the top 12% hand range is about 50%. However, his raise comes from early position, so we can expect our equity to be slightly below 50%.

The BB, who so far, holds a random hand, given that he plays a random hand, has an equity of about 19%. If he calls and comes in for two bets, he adds 0,86 BB in value to the pot. If he folds, he adds 1 SB in value. Now if we assuem that he calls two cold with the top 50% of hands(he is very loose) he would add about 1 SB in value as well.

Thus pre-flop equity alone does point towards 3-betting.

In addtion to that, since we hold a hand like 99, the implied odds are in most cases against us as there is some chance that BB can get away from trash but earn extra bets when he does hit. We, with 99, are in constant danger of misplaying, i.e. calling down a beaten hand or folding a winner in a 3-way situation.

Also, there is the issue of initiative. Say we 3-bet pre-flop, the BB folds, the UTG+3 calls and happens to hold something like TT and the flop comes down AK2. If we bet, we can often take away the pot with the worse hand. However, if the BB is in the hand as well, then we will have a very hard time achieving this.

For the reasons outlined above, I therefore recommend 3-betting.

[Boris]

[ QUOTE ]
The presence of the third player should make the TAG play more straightforwardly and therefore make it easier to determine when you are and aren't good with a middle pair like 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

This concept is discussed in TOP and or HPFAP. I would be very careful when applying it in practice, at least with regards to B&M California games. What happens in real life is that the tight player will think along these lines:

"Hmmmmm... this live one will call me with anything and there's another good player in the pot. I think I'll bet my second pair or naked ace in the hopes that the good player will fold."

[J_V]

Wow, I'm not sure which Poker Cave you just came out of, but nicely done. I'm gonna try and duplicate your analysis via PokerStove for practice, not that anyone might care. Knowledge is power and knowing is half the battle.

Thanks for the input.