What if you knew everyone's hole cards?

Suppose you are an above-average player in WPT-type, four-day, 500-or-so player, NLH events. Suppose your expected win rate is about once in 250 events (twice the average).

Now suppose that you are given the magical power of knowing the hole cards of every player at your table for every hand throughout the tournament. Nobody else has this power and nobody knows that you have it. What would this do to your expected win rate?

I've thought about this off & on for a few days without coming up with an elegant or comprehensive way to approach it. My instinct is that you'd increase your chances by a factor in the 3-5 range. The most common recurring benefits would be to keep you on the proper side of all the 55/45-type decisions that arise, and to make you bluff-proof. Only rarely would you get away from the wrong side of set-over-set or know to call with your pocket 3s when someone move-in preflop with pocket 2s.

Does anyone have any thoughts on how to approach this, or any intuitive reactions about the likely answer?

Bob Feduniak <font color="white"> </font>

[TheBlueMonster]

[ QUOTE ]
The most common recurring benefits would be to keep you on the proper side of all the 55/45-type decisions that arise, and to make you bluff-proof.

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Post flop this gift would be fantastic.
But would you fold your JJ everytime you knew someone was holding a bigger pair just ot be on the "safe" side?

Great futures trading book with Fink!

Don't ask me how but I played someone heads up no limit 5 card stud and I knew what his hole cards were every single hand. I beat him in 30 out of 30 freeze outs.

Now if I knew everyone's hole cards in a no limit tourney, I would probably in the money every time if the top 10 percent were paid. The main thing is to avoid big all in confrontations in the early streets (this would nullify the importance of short term luck). And to find a way to have the big money in only at the river where you can no longer get outdrawn.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you are an above-average player in WPT-type, four-day, 500-or-so player, NLH events. Suppose your expected win rate is about once in 250 events (twice the average).

Now suppose that you are given the magical power of knowing the hole cards of every player at your table for every hand throughout the tournament. Nobody else has this power and nobody knows that you have it. What would this do to your expected win rate?

I've thought about this off &amp; on for a few days without coming up with an elegant or comprehensive way to approach it. My instinct is that you'd increase your chances by a factor in the 3-5 range. The most common recurring benefits would be to keep you on the proper side of all the 55/45-type decisions that arise, and to make you bluff-proof. Only rarely would you get away from the wrong side of set-over-set or know to call with your pocket 3s when someone move-in preflop with pocket 2s.

Does anyone have any thoughts on how to approach this, or any intuitive reactions about the likely answer?

Bob Feduniak <font color="white"> </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Well its hard to say with your example because you are postulating a player who simply isn't that good.

I think the advantage for a very good player is astonishingly high.

I think a good player would make the money an incredibly high percentage of the time, the final table somewhere in the 40-50 percent of the time range, and win the tournament 20-30 percent of the time.

And quite frankly I think those estimates are low.

Just think about how you'd play if you could see the other player's hole cards.

--Zetack

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]


I've thought about this off &amp; on for a few days without coming up with an elegant or comprehensive way to approach it. My instinct is that you'd increase your chances by a factor in the 3-5 range. The most common recurring benefits would be to keep you on the proper side of all the 55/45-type decisions that arise, and to make you bluff-proof. Only rarely would you get away from the wrong side of set-over-set or know to call with your pocket 3s when someone move-in preflop with pocket 2s.

<font color="white"> </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

You haven't thought about this nearly enough if thats what you see as the main benefits. Or maybe I've just thought about it way too much...

--Zetack

[TomCollins]

In a WPT style tournament, you would probably win at least 80% of the time if you played perfect.

In the early rounds, you can win a bundle of chips post flop. Once you get enough of a stack, it's easy to get your money in as a favorite but be able to afford a few losses.

[Boris]

I'm trying to figure out how you woudn't win 99% of the tournaments you entered. Or maybe I'm missing something.

[zoobird]

I agree. Especially if nobody knew that you knew what they had. Anytime the pot gets big before the river early in the tournament you fold to avoid putting all your chips in. Play all sorts of junk if you can get in cheap. I think you win 99% of the time. If people know that you can see their hole cards it would a little lower because they'll fold or go all-in every time to try to knock you out.

[phx]

yea i would pretty much never play a pot unless you can get it to the river where u know u have the best hand

[Autocratic]

You're not going to win 99% of your tournaments. If you could also see the cards that are going to come out, it might be a different story.