Push all-in on this flop?

[FreakDaddy]

If he has QJ(most likely for this player) or AJ I'm ~47%. KJ I'm almost 52%. If he has underpair though I'm a favorite as well. BTW does a set check/raise this little on the flop 'usually'?

[FreakDaddy]

Question: From your experience, does a set check/raise this little on the flop? Second question, I'm not much of a dog against reverse dominated hands, still ~47% to win. I have to have 4% fold equity for this to be profitable(if he doesn't have a set). And if he has an underpair, like small pocket pair I'm a favorite. You don't think it's here though huh? I don't know. I'm 50/50 on this one.

[Toyboy]

[ QUOTE ]
Question: From your experience, does a set check/raise this little on the flop? Second question, I'm not much of a dog against reverse dominated hands, still ~47% to win. I have to have 4% fold equity for this to be profitable(if he doesn't have a set). And if he has an underpair, like small pocket pair I'm a favorite. You don't think it's here though huh? I don't know. I'm 50/50 on this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

To answer your question:
I could certainly see myself playing a set (2s or 5s) exactly the way villain does both pf and on the flop.

His small re-raise might be encouraging an over-the-top from you which is exactly what he wants (I think...).

From his point of view, this flop is not a scary one if he has trips (flush draw, hearts, is certainly not the most likely holding he will put you on).

That being said I don't hate a push here. If he has trips: that's life and you still have like 30% pot equity (I think)or abt $50-$60 for an investment of $85.

Factoring in fold equity and the times he's got less than a set (including flush draws that you are ahead of) I think this is a slightly +EV move. And you will get more action on your future big hands of course...

[FreakDaddy]

Of course his almost mini-raise on the flop could be precisely that- a move to intice and over the top, which considering villian, seems likely, as a bluff I think would be a bigger raise by this kind of player. That's exactely what I was thinking, so I decided to call/fold turn unimproved since I didn't feel I had a solid enough read. Good post.

[lautzutao]

If I'd seen villian raise draws before in these spots I push this on the flop. You're about 50/50 if he's paired the board, 30/70 if he's got a set, WAY ahead if he's bluffing with a draw. Against the guy you described here poosh.