HU against a "PT'er"

[silkyslim]

Villain is a tight aggressive table coach who uses PT and will get cute. i think this is standard, he berated me.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

[jackdaniels]

Standard.

[Fat Nicky]

nh

[ReptileHouse]

It's possible I could find a fold on the flop as my overcard outs are likely very dirty, but I don't mind the call. Once that turn card hits, the hand plays itself.

He's just bitter because you hit a runner runner to beat him. Nice hand.

[ QUOTE ]
It's possible I could find a fold on the flop as my overcard outs are likely very dirty, but I don't mind the call. Once that turn card hits, the hand plays itself.

He's just bitter because you hit a runner runner to beat him. Nice hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I initially thought the same thing, but he's got a couple things going for him other than overcards.

Let's say his overcards are worth an out each for two outs total. He has a flush (not the nut flush, though) and straight draw. So, maybe 2 outs for those. With this size pot, he needs less than 3 outs to call the flop.

Of course, had I been playing this, I would have never been able to do figure this out in time to make the call.

EDIT: Or am I being too generous with outs?

[W. Deranged]

Where do you get the impression he needs less than 3 outs to call the flop? He's getting a little under 9-1, meaning his equity needs to be in the 9-10% range here. (He'll never have the odds to call the turn unimproved unless he picks up a big draw). That means he needs something like 4.5-5 outs consistently to make this call close to correct. I actually think he needs a bit more because so often he'll hit and lose but often when he hits and wins he won't extract max value: hence he's giving reverse implied odds. Needing safely 5 clean outs to proceed, as he never has more than 3 overcard outs really, and the flush and straight draw are longshots, I see effectively 4-4.5 outs here and a clear fold.

Okay, maybe I'm looking at the wrong chart, or I'm just altogether reading it incorrectly.

But, for 4 outs, you need 10.5 to 1 to call the river, and only 5 to 1 to call the turn.

If I'm wrong, please correct me.

On the turn if you have exactly 4 outs you need 10.5:1 to call (to see the river). 42 cards you lose, 4 cards you win so the ratio is 42/4 = 10.5:1

On the flop (assuming you have 4 pure outs twice - like a gutshot) then you would need less odds to call the flop (to see the turn) and turn (to see the river). You have your four outs twice so you have more chances to hit (two streets). I usually just count my outs a time and a half (so 6 in the flop gutshot example) as a quick calculation for needed odds on the flop.

The problem Here is that you do not have pure outs. When you give one out to a BD draw you are already accounting for two streets . . . if you then account for it as a whole out twice (on 2 streets) you are doublecounting. Here the estimate of "outs" are not true outs and should not be "counted up". Also, this does not inclue implied odds or reverse implied odds given by the board and the action. Does this make sense?

EDIT: If you PM the chart you have I can tell you where the numbers are coming from. I'm good at math but I suck at the strategy aspect of Poker =)

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
With this size pot, he needs less than 3 outs to call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? 3 outs is 14:1...he's getting 8.5:1. He CAN'T hit a definite winning hand on the turn, so he has to go to the river, regardless, but he's either putting in another bet or folding on the turn, so I don't think you can count flop-to-river odds, and Hero's implieds suck since the river is the only street he'll have to make up bets.

[ QUOTE ]
so I don't think you can count flop-to-river

[/ QUOTE ]

This might explain why the chart I'm looking at is wrong.