Unsure about this fold

nihil · #1 07-02-2004, 07:22 AM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO calls.

River: (8.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, Hero folds, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

At the time it didn't feel right to not make that last call on the River (when in doubt I typically toss the hand away), but seeing the stuff people play I wouldn't have been surprised with someone hanging onto garbage with an Ace. Looking back on it I feel better about my fold on the River. Was folding indeed the correct thing to do?

chief444 · #2 07-02-2004, 07:28 AM

I think that is a very bad fold. Actually I think you should not even check/call. I think you should bet the river for value here. MP1 probably just missed his draw and CO may have stolen this with a weak J or even a total bluff after he missed his draw as well. But even if you don't feel you can bet this river for value you at the very least need to check/call. Do you really believe you won't win this more than 1 in 10 times?

nihil · #3 07-02-2004, 07:34 AM

I never really looked at it in the long run.... What I should realize is that this hand becomes profitable with an Ace falling on the river with a board as crappy as that, in the long run?

tardigrade · #4 07-02-2004, 07:46 AM

Unfortunately, I have to say that's a terrible fold. You really don't have any reason to suspect that either of your opponents is holding onto an ace or can beat queens with their holdings. You would be getting 9:1 on that final call. Do you think there's at least a 10% chance that you might have a winner? I sure do! If the ace came up on the flop, and you saw some action at the time, then you don't want to have to call all the way to the river. But there's no way you can lay down for one final BB on the river. Chances are your opponent has a jack with a low kicker and thinks you missed your draw.

nihil · #5 07-02-2004, 07:50 AM

What is the reasoning behind me getting 9:1 odds on that call?

tardigrade · #6 07-02-2004, 07:52 AM

Since the pot is up to 9.75 BB, and you only need to call 1 BB to win it all, I said 9:1. It actually seems to be closer to 10:1.

nihil · #7 07-02-2004, 07:54 AM

Oh yeah, duh! Thanks a lot for your help.

chief444 · #8 07-02-2004, 07:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I never really looked at it in the long run.... What I should realize is that this hand becomes profitable with an Ace falling on the river with a board as crappy as that, in the long run?

[/ QUOTE ]
What you need to look at is you only have two opponents. Even though many will call down with any ace some will not. I don't think the odds of one of your opponents holding one of 3 unseen aces are as high as you think here. I would guess that you will still be ahead on the river when the ace falls more than half of the time.

But the bigger issue is with 9.75 BB's in the pot, you only have to win this showdown 1 in 10.75 times (9.75 in pot + your 1BB call) or more to make calling the right decision. There is no way you won't win this showdown way more often then than, IMO.

Whether this river is a good time to value bet may be debatable so I don't have a huge issue with check/calling although I still think you should have bet the river. But folding against 2 opponents for 1 BB in a 9.75 BB pot with nothing scary except one overcard which came on the river should not have even crossed your mind.

tardigrade · #9 07-02-2004, 07:59 AM

No problem ... don't worry about it too much. Here's a page someone showed me that illustrates the principle better than I ever could:

The Furcoat Dilemma

Songwind · #10 07-02-2004, 09:02 AM

Yep - think about it. The odds of getting an ace dealt to any given person are 1/52 + 1/51, or about 24:1.

So the odds that one of your opponents has an Ace is about 12:1 in your favor since there are two of them - even if you lose an extra BB or two in this situation you will usually win.

Not to mention that a good Ace hand would have been acting up more on earlier streets, and your other scare hand (KK) would definitely have done something with that flop or turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I never really looked at it in the long run.... What I should realize is that this hand becomes profitable with an Ace falling on the river with a board as crappy as that, in the long run?

[/ QUOTE ]