A3s in BB against pre-flop raiser when an ace flops

maurile · #1 01-31-2005, 03:04 PM

This is a common situation: you have ace-little-sooted in the big blind, call one raise, flop an ace, and have to decide whether to call down all the way. The correct answer is situation- and opponent-dependent, of course. But assume on this hand that I have no reads on any players. I'll try to make standard assumptions about hand-ranges based on "normal" play.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

I will generally play Axs from the big blind for one more bet against any number of opponents.

If I were heads up against the raiser, assuming he'd open-raise from UTG+1 with AA-TT, AK-AJ, and KQ, PokerStove says he's a 2-1 favorite over me. (63.5%-36.5%, to be more precise.) So a call heads up getting over 3-1 from the pot makes sense based on pot equity.

I'd expect the multiway action to improve my expectation since I'm sooted. Let's see what PokerStove says:

I gave the CO the same range of hands as UTG+1, and I gave UTG the following range of hands for his open-limp: TT-22, AJs-A2s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, KQo, KJo.

According to PokerStove, I have about 18.5% pot equity against that lineup. Since I'm getting 7.5-1 from the pot (assuming the small blind folds and UTG calls), the call looks justified here.

So it looks like I was wrong about the multiway action improving my expectation: I should be fairly indifferent to having those extra opponents, with a slight preference toward being heads up. 36.5% * 4.5 bets = 1.64 bets. 18.5% * 8.5 bets = 1.57 bets.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds.

If CO would bet this flop with every holding we assigned to him pre-flop, it's an easy call, at least. (Raising would be better because I might get a better ace to fold, and if not, I'd at least get some information about where I stand.) Keeping all the same ranges of hands we assigned pre-flop to each of my three opponents gives me a 30.1% share of the pot, and I'm getting 9.5-1 from the pot. Granted, I have to fear a check-raise from BB or UTG; but the odds are that I have them beat.

If we assume CO would have just checked with KQ, my pot equity falls to 26.3%.

If we assume CO would have just checked without having flopped an ace (i.e., his range of hands is AA, AK-AJ), my pot equity falls to 9.7%. In this case, I should fold. I'm getting 9.5-1 from the pot right now, but it will cost me 2.5 big bets to show down (assuming no raises from BB or UTG). So my effective odds even if all four opponents stay in to the river are 11.75-2.5. (There are 4.25 big bets in the pot pre-flop. There will be two more on the flop, four on the turn, and four on the river. So the final pot will be 14.25 big bets, 2.5 of which I'll have to contribute myself.)

If we acknowledge my reverse-implied odds against UTG and UTG+1 -- i.e., they will be more likely to fold without an ace than with one -- my effective odds become worse than 11.75-2.5. If UTG and UTG+1 fold here leaving me heads up against CO, my effective odds are 6.75-2.5.

So it looks like I should definitely contest the pot if CO would bet this flop with anything, but I should definitely fold if he'd check when the flop missed him.

If his tendency is somewhere in between (e.g., he'd bet with KK or QQ, but not JJ, TT, or KQ), things aren't as clear.

Overall, especially given that UTG and UTG+1 still have to act, I think my call on this flop was a mistake, but not a horrible one.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Now we're heads up. The 8c gave me some outs to split the pot if CO has an ace.

If my opponent still has the range of hands we gave him pre-flop, I'm a 61-39 favorite.

If he has only AA & AK-AJ, I'm about an 8-1 dog. If we throw in KK as a possible holding, I'm about a 3-1 dog. If we throw in QQ as well, I'm about a 1.7-1 dog.

So my play here is opponent-dependent, but against most opponents I should probably fold (although it's close). I'm getting 6.25-1 immediate odds, about 3.5-1 effective odds assuming he'll bet on the end with anything; and worse than 3.5-1 effective odds if he'll bet on the end only if he's ahead.

River: (7.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Once I've come this far, I have to call on the river.

Overall, I think my pre-flop and river decisions were easy, but the flop and and turn decisions were close. I lean toward thinking I made small errors (without at least a backdoor straight or flush draw on the flop). Anyone disagree?

PokeHer · #2 01-31-2005, 03:22 PM

I would say that you should raise the flop instead of calling down. This is good for 3 reasons:
1. it's an easy fold if you are 3-bet
2. if he calls and checks the turn, you could check behind and call a bet on the river (saves you 1 SB if you lose)
3. you make it 2 cold to UTG and UTG+1

It is bad because if he is bluffing, the raise will stop him from bluffing more, but chances are he will fold and you'll take it down right there.

So, I like raising the flop.

maurile · #3 01-31-2005, 04:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would say that you should raise the flop instead of calling down. This is good for 3 reasons:
1. it's an easy fold if you are 3-bet
2. if he calls and checks the turn, you could check behind and call a bet on the river (saves you 1 SB if you lose)
3. you make it 2 cold to UTG and UTG+1

It is bad because if he is bluffing, the raise will stop him from bluffing more, but chances are he will fold and you'll take it down right there.

So, I like raising the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good points. But check-raising on the flop for a free turn card is less likely to work when I'm out of position. Maybe I should have led out on the flop to see if I got raised.

If I'm heads up before the flop, I like check-calling in this situation (since I'm determined to show down anyway given that my opponent will probably keep betting any pair) because I win the maximum if I'm ahead (by inducing him to keep betting) and I lose the minimum if I'm behind (by not allowing him to raise). But with four players seeing the flop, I should not be determined to show down. I can lead out and fold to a raise.

Just checking, though, has the advantage of saving a bet if it's bet and raised before it comes back to me.

lu_hawk · #4 01-31-2005, 04:20 PM

you could make your analysis shorter and more correct if you folded preflop.

maurile · #5 01-31-2005, 05:02 PM

In a four-way pot getting 7.5-1, I'm not folding a suited ace pre-flop. I'm going to flop the nut flush draw or the nut flush 11.8% of the time. So I'm a 7.5-1 shot to flop at least the nut flush draw, which is worth more than a small bet.

PokeHer · #6 01-31-2005, 05:32 PM

But check-raising on the flop for a free turn card is less likely to work when I'm out of position.

Whoops. didnt see that you were in the BB