Comment on Miller's Editorial

[baronzeus]

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This is what I'm talking about. Ilovebadbeats, I wish you the very best. But know that your goals seem very farfetched. I'm quite sure that you could crush the 2/4 tables, but you'll find that the 30/60s are a bit different.

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I have been playing poker for 7 months and I 8 table 30/60. Making 1BB/100 at this limit (if I manage to do so) would net me approximately $500/hr + rakeback which is another $60/hr. I would need to play 400hrs/year or about 30hrs/month to make 200K in a year.

[Ed Miller]

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we now know that a 650 bb downswing is commonplace

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this is totally wrong. i'm surprised ed miller agrees.

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I don't agree that it's quite "commonplace." But we're splitting some hairs at that point. If you're making 1BB/100 hands at limit where people play really aggressive, a 650BB downswing is remarkable, but not exactly lightning striking.

EDIT: Then again, I was hyperbole-ing a bit when I said that $200k a year is "not entirely remarkable." That's a very significant earn that anyone should be quite proud of.

[12AX7]

Hi Peter,
Well, the thing about the PODxt ads and manual are they make it appear as though all those classic sound of say, Zep IV are just going to fall out of it. Or more correctly those tones. Not the playing skill. I'm here to tell you. It doesn't work like that. LOL!

I own the PODxt, POD 2.3, V-amp2 and several of the real amps they model. I've been messing with recording since I was 12 and am now 43. I think I have a reasonable background to say that Line 6's copy writers are a bit optimistic.

Sort of like Ed's latest editorial. Some folks may have done what he says. I don't question that. But my god, does it not read like, "I read SSHE and that one book changed my into a WSOP level champ."

As an example, I've studyied and outlined Ed's Short Stack system, and have played it as best I could for as much as 24 hours straight at time and have concluding some important things really are left out. (e.g. playing from the blinds? How to determine if you *are* best on the flop??? Not just "if you think you are best"... and that's really the key to the whole game now, isn't it?)

Anyway, it just has that feel of an infomercial. "Joe Blow made a million at this and you could to..." Then the really fine print or really fast blurb comes by..."results not typical".

Sort of like the red herring thing on stocks. "Neither approved nor disapproved" LOL!

Somewhat reminds me of Wade Cook books or Jake Bernstein as well.

Just freakin once I'd like to see one of these "make money" publications really work, for *me*.

If the income of the info marketers out there was tied to thier customer base's results I think you'd see a lot of things change or disappear altogether. But that's a general critique from a lifetime of seeing and reading these sort of things and *never* once seeing one actually work.

[baronzeus]

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I don't agree that it's quite "commonplace." But we're splitting some hairs at that point. If you're making 1BB/100 hands at limit where people play really aggressive, a 650BB downswing is remarkable, but not exactly lightning striking.


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Doing some quick math, there is about a 1 in 250 chance that a player making "true" 1BB/100 will drop 650BB over a 100K stretch. I guess "very unlikely" would be a better term to describe such a downswing.

Also, the reason I post so much and read and study vigorously (not sure if that's the word I want) is because I want to get better. And the better the player, the smaller the downswing. A 2BB/100 player going on a 650BB downswing is extremely unlikely -- I'd guess to the order of hundredths of a percentage chance.

[limon]

multi table on line players w/ 300k hands+ playing 15-30 and higher who havnt hit a 550-650 bb downswing are the exeption and not the rule. unless somehow they never play short.

[12AX7]

Just going to corroborate here. I think Ed's writing is very clear compared to a lot of writing out there. And definitely GSIH and SSHE should be required reading for all noobs. Or even not so noobs.

They are good works, no doubt about it.

[limon]

what pro player do you know who plays only 100k in a year? try 300k.

[TaintedRogue]

You can obtain from both PokerStars and Party Poker, a complete history of your deposits and withdrawals since you first signed up.

I doubt anyone will ever post a copy of one proving their 200K per yr claim.

They could even black out their name and have someone else post it to avoid tax consequences. So, there is no excuse.
There's a lot of talk from a lot of people.

I also do not see how it is possible for someone to play poker 8 hours a day, 50 weeks a year, live or on-line, for an extended period of time.

Finally, Sklansky claimed some time back that he doubts that there are more than 100 people in the world making over 100K a year playing 30/60. I believe that was prior to the boom in on-line poker.

[RED_RAIN]

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Finally, Sklansky claimed some time back that he doubts that there are more than 100 people in the world making over 100K a year playing 30/60. I believe that was prior to the boom in on-line poker.

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This is old school. As I think someone who plays 10/20-15/30 multi 4-5 tables could break 100k.

[TimM]

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You can obtain from both PokerStars and Party Poker, a complete history of your deposits and withdrawals since you first signed up.

I doubt anyone will ever post a copy of one proving their 200K per yr claim.

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Anything posted here in a digital form can easily be faked with photoshop, so how is accepting a picture of someone's cash outs any different than taking someone's word for it?

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I also do not see how it is possible for someone to play poker 8 hours a day, 50 weeks a year, live or on-line, for an extended period of time.

Finally, Sklansky claimed some time back that he doubts that there are more than 100 people in the world making over 100K a year playing 30/60. I believe that was prior to the boom in on-line poker.

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It would take a live player 32 hours to play the number of hands I get in 4 hours.

Right now I play 15/30 online, 4 tables. Each month I average 4 hours per day, including the days I don't play at all.

One big bet per hour per table (equivalent to half a big bet per hour in live play), averaging 4 hours per day for a year = $175,200.

Now factor this in:

- A good player can double this win rate at 15/30.
- A good 30/60 player can do even better than that.
- It's possible to play more than four tables at a time
- It's possible to average more than four hours per day.