400 BB downswing

[Turning Stone Pro]

I am in the middle of a month long, 400 BB downswing playing 15-30 PP. Is this abnormal? I'm starting to worry that I may not be as good a player as I thought.

Any advice from fellow 2+2ers?

TSP

[Edge34]

I'm sure this is going to be one of many similar responses...

Take a little time off the game, maybe take a step down to the 10/20 or even 5/10 game for a while when you play. Evaluate your play during the time away from playing and see what problems stick out - we all still have them. I've never gone through a 400 BB downswing but I always remember that its possible...just gotta collect your thoughts, analyze your game, and reevaluate. Hope you can build it back up.

-Edge

[Enon]

I thought you quit the 15/30 for fear that you might give up your past winnings? Did the wife pressure you for more poker funded house improvements?

I'd also like to apologize in advance for some of the callous ridicule you are about to endure from some of the others around here, even though you are very likely aware that you are inviting it.

[mike l.]

400 bbs is abnormally large.

take a one week break minimum.

then come back and play only 10-20 and lower until you make at least $6000 back.

have you read and reread the ed miller book carefully?

[hockey1]

I have had three or four 150 to 200 BB downswings in the past 18 months. Sometimes the downswing lasts a weekend, sometimes 2 months. I've come to think that substantial swings are pretty much unavoidable given the way Party 15/30 plays. For example, in my last 150 BB downswing I can point to a dozen hands where I lost to a three-outer or less on the river that in the aggregate totalled well over 150 BB. That's certainly not to say that I wasn't partly responsible for the bad run, just that luck can play a big role in the short term. Just last night I was up 90 BB in just over one hour -- 120 hands. Lucky. Crazy. But so are many Party 15/30 players and swings must be expected because of it.

To help get through the downswings I've taken time off, reduced the number of tables I'm playing at any given time, and thought hard about both the outright leaks in my game and adjustments called for by my opponents' sometimes ridiculous playing styles. FWIW, each time I've managed to pull it back and then some, and I'm certainly not the player that many around here are (yet). I firmly believe that anyone with decent intelligence who is willing to work hard on their game will win in the long run. You definitely qualify. Hang in there.

[James282]

You probably didn't adjust to the fact that an ace comes on the turn far more than other cards do.

A wise man once said,

"Ole"
-James

[chio]

this is obviously a fake post to see how many haters will come out and ridicule him, then he will say what a winning streak he's been on, hah in your face

[elindauer]

Hi TSP,

I haven't played with you much, but I felt you were a somewhat loose preflop. J8s 3 off the button after 2 limpers? That's reaching a bit. I also have you open-raising K9o CO+1 with a poster in the cutoff.

I don't remember noticing anything unusual in your postflop play.

Anyways, having watched you a bit, I'm sure you're plenty good enough to beat the game and you're likely just going through a normal streak of bad luck.

good luck.
Eric

[1800GAMBLER]

You are a winning player in ths 15/30, maybe not as much as you think but you def. earn at least 1bb/100h, you'll have a ~20bb/100h variance for that. So yes, -400bb is meant to happen sooner or later.

I've had the same streak.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey TSP,

A few months ago I would've said that a 400 BB downswing means you haven't been playing winning poker during that stretch, but I recently went through a 300 BB downswing myself playing very good poker, so I can see how it would be possible. However, having played with you a bit, I'm not positive that you're a winning player at the Party 15. You do have to consider the possibility that you are not, in fact, a winning player and that you may have just been running very well.

Also, I'd encourage you to stop playing in HU matches against solid HU opponents. That alone is responsible for over 10% of your losses - that I know of.

Edit: My biggest piece of general advice would be to tighten up in the blinds to raises preflop. You don't seem able to play hands like ATo profitably postflop in raised pots from the blinds. Situations like that may be where you're leaking away bets. This advice is coming from the relatively small number of hands I've played with you.

GoT