AA misplayed myself into a tough river decision

[Salerosa]

Accidently cross-posted in SSNLH

600 NL 6-max

I have 1300 and pick up red aces, villain has about 3k and seems to have some game to back up his stack. He has shown down some pretty strong hands thus far.

I am button, 2 limpers to me including villain from CO. I make it 30, all fold to villain, who calls.

Flop(75): 10 7 4 rainbow

He checks to me, I bet 75, he calls.

Turn(225): 2c putting two clubs out

He checks, I check.

River(225): 5o

He checks, I bet 125, he makes it 325 on top. Hmmmm.

[psuasskicker]

Looks like an easy call to me. Your turn check begged him to try to steal this pot from you on the river in some way. Maybe he's strong, but I think he's bluffing or raising with a very marginal hand enough of the time here that a call is correct.

I have no idea why you didn't bet on the turn, but your title seems to indicate you already know that. Then again, it could easily be a way to get him to try to bluff some more money off to you on the river than he'd call if he's behind on the turn. But again, the title doesn't indicate that's the case.

I like this move against aggro guys that will stop putting money in to a turn bet, but will commit a good bit on the river with a marginal hand or bluff if you show weakness. I won't say I do it a lot, but I do it, and it works well. While you lose to some strong hands, the fact of the matter is you probably lose less than if you bet the turn and got raised and called down, while at the same time winning much more from people with marginal hands or bluffing hands that will simply fold to a turn bet. It's a very effective value extraction play if the board is dry from draws.

- C -

[Salerosa]

I am not sure the turn check was all that bad, I don't think he calls another large turn bet with something I am beating unless he puts me on a steal (plus I am not a big fan of bloating the pot with one pair, even an overpair, against what I consider to be good opponents). Which is what I wanted to represent on the river, only I thought he would just call with one pair, not fire back as large as he did. I let my time bank run down, thought about it, decided my river bet looked weak and like a steal, and called. Thoughts?

FWIW I thought he held a 10 on the flop when he smoothcalled, thinking I'd slowdown on the turn if I missed (which I did) but on the river I decided that the big reraise was probably more likely 89s or something along those lines (making the turn check bad).

[psuasskicker]

I am not sure the turn check was all that bad... only I thought he would just call with one pair, not fire back as large as he did. I let my time bank run down, thought about it, decided my river bet looked weak and like a steal, and called. Thoughts?

I think this reasoning is perfectly fine as I stated in my response.

But if that's your reasoning, this is an auto-call. He'll be trying to bet you off missed overcards trying to pick up the pot against a passive caller while he holds a wide range of hands.

- C -

[ QUOTE ]
I am not sure the turn check was all that bad, I don't think he calls another large turn bet with something I am beating unless he puts me on a steal (plus I am not a big fan of bloating the pot with one pair, even an overpair, against what I consider to be good opponents). Which is what I wanted to represent on the river, only I thought he would just call with one pair, not fire back as large as he did. I let my time bank run down, thought about it, decided my river bet looked weak and like a steal, and called. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your thinking here. We can rule out any hands with showdown potential here besides sets. I'd have to narrow his hand range down to 44 or a complete miss on the flop, thinking he'd try to take it away on the turn with a nice CR. Since you checked behind on the turn that threw a wrench into his plans. 77 raises preflop from CO in 6max normally?

I don't know what to make of the river here. I can see a set doing that if he thinks you have missed over cards because if he leads out you probably just fold so he wants to give you a chance to put more money in. However, I would think air would just lead out on the river as a steal since you showed weakness.

[Leptyne]

At 6-Max you find a lot more players calling raises with suited connectors. Because of this I am reluctant to check the turn when a free card will beat me. However he could also have an overpair. You have also disguised your hand. If I'm villain your turn check plus weak river bet gives me some hope. And this could also be a slowplayed set. I think a call is +EV.

In any case your turn check induces a river bluff. So what amount were you going to call when he fell for your induced bluff? You could easily have checked behind here, but your weak bet could easily give villain second thoughts on a steal or semi-bluff with an overpair.

I agree with your thinking until the club comes on the turn giving villain a backdoor flush draw. No free card here!