minimum buy in- post->push->leave

[emp1346]

[ QUOTE ]
People will call with lesser hands.

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look, i'm not arguing whether the strategy "in general" is a good one...

read the damn original post, will ya? i've now actually sat down with some time and run the actual calculations, and it is DEFINATELY, repeat DEFINATELY +EV based on the hands listed...

now, if you want to disuss "people noticing" what you're doing, we're assuming for the sake of the discussion that there is an endless poker room where this play can always be made at a 'new' table... recall, please, that this is the probability forum, not the "in theory it's great but will never work" forum...

and now, if you want to talk about "weaker hands" calling, please, please, define "weaker hands" and then further that statement by providing some EV associated with this, or pose it as a question that can be answered...

the strategy is +EV the way it was asked, whether you want to believe it or not...

[kmvenne]

Here is an interesting idea, although it will ruin your ability to do this again to anyone that sees it. Proceed as OP stated, but always show your bluff if you take it down uncontested. Then pay the SB and play out the free cards, and only shove AA, KK, QQ, and AK. $1 paid for the oppertunity to get your money in with likely by far the best of it against greatly reduced calling standards (people will say "does he always just wait for 94o to push or something??"). While we might have trouble quantifying the edge this adds to the play, can we all who discussed that weaker hands will call the first push perhaps agree that adding this element and some rules regarding reraises ahead of us or big raises could make this strategy +EV? I think I can see it being as such....

[TomCollins]

Even in an endless room, and if everyone has amnesia, some players will call with hands such as 88, or even some people will call with AT.

[Pokerlogist]

Okay, let’s loosen the calling range to AA-99,AK-AJ.

Those hands are expected to occur more often than the strong premium hands at a rate 6.3 times for every 100 hands. That suggests you’d be called about 63% of the time at a 10-player table, much higher than the earlier 1/3, and that you would not called 37% of the time. On the other hand, those hands have a collective win rate against random hands of 71%, a bit less than the stronger group. So this implies that 37% of the time you’d win an uncontested pot, 45% you’d lose your stack of $40, and 18% of the time you’d win a showdown. So how much must you win in an uncontested pot to break even? We assumed in showdown wins, you’d get about $45. Let EV=.37(x,$uncontested pot size) +.45(-$40 loss)+.18(+$45win)=0. Now solve for x=minimal size of contested pot won and we get x=+$26.75 [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] . Compare that to the earlier +$6.4. This is too high to reasonably expect to get in a typical preflop pot at this blind level ($1/$2). To make things worse, when you open allin, say from an early position, all that you could win in an uncontested pot would be the blinds, $3. That's just not enough. It seems that when a calling range is loosened up a little it makes a dramatic negative change in the outcome of all-in bets. The implication is that the system, in its most simple form, could only work against tight calling ranges, if at all [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].
Hope this helps .

BTW I used the marvelous Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1 for this.

I think that the general online poker public is much to wise to this or plain just to bitter at players who go all in on their first hands and are much more inclined to call. I definately think this would be a -EV based on the fact that people love to bust bluffers and this is known as a good bluffing situation.

[meow_meow]

[ QUOTE ]
if people are calling with lesser hands, what about higher limits then?

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Probably broadens the range of hands that will call you, especially since you are buying short.

Also, your OP asks us to assume "you don't have a reputation for doing this". That might be the case for about the first 50-100 hands.

[That guy]

If you had a good table selection strategy with lots of players to the flop and screened for no real LAG's, this might help...

I agree that after doing this in the BB and showing it, you post the SB and see 9 hands for the cost of a SB and only move in with AA or KK or maybe AK-s...

By waiting through 1 orbit, your PT stats would revert to non-extreme nums...