It's a big flop.

adsman · #1 09-26-2005, 02:40 AM

This was a nice table. What's your play on the flop?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero?

Hojglad · #2 09-26-2005, 02:43 AM

Call down. Fold to any further aggression other than a bet by UTG. He pretty much either has a set of aces here, or something you are crushing. Turn a K. You table select g00t.

adsman · #3 09-26-2005, 02:59 AM

I was kinda thinking more along the lines of a raise...

tyler_cracker · #4 09-26-2005, 02:59 AM

Any reads? If not, UTG's capping range is probably something like AA/KK/QQ/AK. If this is the case, we're way behind to his range (or splitting with the other KK).

I think UTG either has KK/QQ or is waiting to check-raise with AA.

We can't protect our hand by raising here anyway, so just call, see what UTG does, and re-evaluate on the turn.

MP2 waking up and betting on this completely uncoordinated board is extremely alarming (especially readless). I think we're boned, so i'm folding the turn UI assuming MP2 continues to bet, and doubly so if UTG goes nuts as well.

Note that the pot is so big that you're getting odds to draw to your set, so even though we're behind a huge amount of the time, we can't fold yet.

Hojglad · #5 09-26-2005, 03:02 AM

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I was kinda thinking more along the lines of a raise...

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Why do you want to raise? MP2 is donk betting into you. You three bet pre-flop. He knows you have a good hand. He pretty much has to have at least top pair to make this bet. He's not folding top pair if you raise, right? I mean, would you? If you can make a compelling argument that raising here improves your chances of winning this pot, then by all means, raise. However, even if you raise, gutshots can draw profitably. Bottom pair can even draw profitably. Top pair will not fold. The pot is just too big, and your hand isn't really vunerable to anything (if it isn't already crushed). Why not just draw to your 2 outer (which you are getting great odds for) and allow the rest of the donkeys that are tagging along to provide a massive overlay on your call-down?

Student Caine · #6 09-26-2005, 03:04 AM

These situations are brutal...with this many people on the flop you are almost certainly up against an Ace.

The fact that MP2 has just bet tells you that he has something and with the board totally uncoordinated (except for the possibility of a gutshot straight) you are most likely up against some Ace.

The fact that UTG has just checked means one of two things:

1) He has a smaller pocket pair.
2) He has a set of Aces (*maybe* AK) and will either be check raising here or on the Turn.

This pot is huge, I am talking family size...this is one of those rare instances where you are actually getting odds to draw to your set. You get these odds here, but you won't probably won't get them on the turn, so my line is to get to the Showdown as cheaply as possible and maybe spike a King along the way (one can only hope), so I raise here. If I get my King on the turn I am pumping in bets. If I miss my King and it checks to me then I check through and call the River bet (hoping there is only one).

If anyone reads this and thinks that I am crazy please tell me so...that way when I wind up here I don't actually do this. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

EDIT:

I need to add that any aggressive action by UTG makes me really, really queasy. I imagine that he is holding AA/KK/AKs/AKo(maybe)/QQ(maybe). If he goes crazy then he probably has a set of Aces or *maybe* AK, in which case we are drawing to 1 card - and the only way you hit one card is if you are HU against me (sorry, a little morbid, woe-is-me, bad beat huimor there). [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

EDIT EDIT:

Something else that a raise does here is, if anyone has a pocket pair you are forcing them to draw to a set with improper odds.

adsman · #7 09-26-2005, 03:10 AM

I didn't provide any reads because all my opponents were very bad. If the flop better had an Ace I was pretty sure it wasn't a good one. I wanted to take the momentum away from him with my position and maybe, just maybe get a free look at the river.
Sklansky and co. often say that you should do whatever you can to win the really big pots. I figured that this was the case here.

Hojglad · #8 09-26-2005, 03:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't provide any reads because all my opponents were very bad. If the flop better had an Ace I was pretty sure it wasn't a good one. I wanted to take the momentum away from him with my position and maybe, just maybe get a free look at the river.
Sklansky and co. often say that you should do whatever you can to win the really big pots. I figured that this was the case here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, here's the thing - if you are willing to concede the possibility that he has an A, you must also be willing to concede that he will not fold. If he does have an A, you would be better off having 95o here than KK. Another thing to consider about a raise - that damn UTG player. He is either sitting on a monster or just absolutely owned right now. If you raise, and he three bets, what do you do? You have just made it cost one more unnecessary BB to get to showdown (if you still intend to show your hand down, that is). Also, if I understand you right, you are trying for some version of the free card play. The problem is, you are drawing to a 2 outer if you are behind. Are you intending to check the turn if you don't spike a K? I don't understand making a free card play when you are drawing to two outs. It's not like the free card is really going to help you win the pot (although it would get you to showdown cheaper if it worked) since your draw is so unlikely to come in. Now, consider the case where your free card play doesn't work, and MP2 ends up betting the turn when a blank falls. I just can't see any reason at all to raise this flop when you are being priced in for your set draw, and you are under the suspicion that MP2 has an A, even if it is a weak one. I guess my point is that seeing the river cheaply doesn't improve your chance to win this pot (especially when you aren't folding - you aren't folding, right?) - spiking a K does.

ArturiusX · #9 09-26-2005, 03:28 AM

Call it down. We want a showdown.

Hojglad · #10 09-26-2005, 03:29 AM

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Call it down. We want a showdown.

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What's your plan if UTG checkraises the field on the flop or turn? I would give serious consideration to folding.