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#1
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15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
This reminds me a bit of the 30/60 discussion in the other hand.
I have no real read on the opponents. What should I do? Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter Preflop: Nightwish is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Nightwish 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG caps</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, Nightwish calls, Button calls. Flop: (18.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font> <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls |
#2
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
Every single day i play the 15 i think the 3 bet preflop sucks more and more yet seems so standard. It just doesn't have a good chance of getting rid of the blinds (it really sucks in this case because of the 2 limpers), the players are (in this case) correctly loose postflop and we aren't dominating much yet have a good risk of a big pair. I'd consider this a simple call.
Fold the flop, i really couldn't care about my 20:1 odds because my 9 isn't good 100% of the time and [censored] taking this to showdown. Oh yea, you aren't closing the action, this is a v. easy fold. White Stripes - Jack the Ripper. |
#3
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
I agree-- I don't do the raising to isolate with smaller pocket pairs anymore at the Party 15/30. It doesn't work.
-rory |
#4
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
[ QUOTE ]
I agree-- I don't do the raising to isolate with smaller pocket pairs anymore at the Party 15/30. It doesn't work. -rory [/ QUOTE ] what about the flop? -Barron |
#5
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
Your flop analysis is correct.
-James |
#6
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
That flop would make me wish I folded my 9s preflop rather than making a futile attempt to isolate.
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#7
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
[ QUOTE ]
Every single day i play the 15 i think the 3 bet preflop sucks more and more yet seems so standard. It just doesn't have a good chance of getting rid of the blinds (it really sucks in this case because of the 2 limpers), the players are (in this case) correctly loose postflop and we aren't dominating much yet have a good risk of a big pair. I'd consider this a simple call. Fold the flop, i really couldn't care about my 20:1 odds because my 9 isn't good 100% of the time and [censored] taking this to showdown. White Stripes - Jack the Ripper. [/ QUOTE ] i totally agree with your preflop analysis. its also great b/c it "saves" a bet on the flop if you agree w/ me and call b/c the pot won't warrant it. but in this case you can't just toss implied odds out the window and say i fold here. despite the fact that whenever we disagree you turn out to be correct 80-90% of the time im sticking to my guns on this one. the turn is too easy to play if you miss your nine. if it hits the worst that can happen is you lose 6-8bb's..BUT that 6-8bb loss will happen so rarely given the action that its worth taking that risk in my mind. do you really see AA in utg's hand? since you do play that 15 game every day, do you aggree with my about 5:1 against aa FROM YOUR EXPERIENCE?? i often see that limp reraise/cap and it so often turns out to be a pair or JTs or something like that thinking its gunna get capped anyway and the person wants to gamble. so when you hit your nine and win you will likely win at least 3 bb's from those 2 so that's 6 plus the 10.5-11 thats already in there and it'll fall 1 in 22.5 times. and you'll win 34 or more bets when it does and holds up. (Assuming bet call raise fold call call. check check bet call call) -Barron |
#8
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
nice. one more thing to think about are the other players in the pot. there will be times 99 makes a set that beats utg (or that 99 is good on the flop or even the turn) but then hero is beat by one of the other players making a bigger hand. this is different then just looking at a heads up decision.
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#9
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
I don't need to go further as I agree with 800gambler 100%.
The only time the 3 bet pre-flop works is when you have a chance of getting the flop checked to you most of the time, and you can get a free look at the turn. From what I've heard about this game, that sounds like never. |
#10
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Re: 15/30 hand (for Manicmailman and mike l)
20.66:1 on the call...21.66:1 in my mind b/c the button has done nothing but call the whole time and there's nothing to suggest he won't call here nor does it seem he'll raise. if he does though, its likely you won't be able to call the 2 or 3 back. that doesn't seem likely though so i call here.
UTG limped and capped, its like 5:1 or less that he's got aa in my mind because whenever i see that given the action it is almost always UTG saying "its gunna get capped anyway so let me do it for deception." also, assuming utg has a great hand it can be AKs or AKo along w/ aa. QQ doesn't seem too likely from utg and you should only fear it from MP2. if MP2 is a very good player then QQ certainly a likely hand, but we don't see many great players on party now do we [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ... anyways, if you hit on the turn you'll likely collect many bets in addition to the pot which is now 20.66bbs and likely 22.66 by the turn. also, when you lose many bets after hitting you can at most lose 8bbs. also, you can fold on the turn when you miss. therefore, all things considered, i call. -Barron |
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