gutshot

AZK · #1 08-31-2005, 05:20 PM

5/10, player who opens with a wide range of hands raises UTG to 30, 1 caller, I call in CO with T9s, button (300ish) bumps it up to 130, UTG calls, I feel like I could stack UTG so I make a debatable call, we both have about 1100. Flop comes 862r, checked to button who moves all in for 180 more, UTG calls, I move in.

Eh?

not_da_nizzles · #2 08-31-2005, 05:32 PM

I don't usually get smart with people who are better poker players than me but ... "I thought you liked money".

Button is beating you and UTG folds unless he is beating you. I don't get it. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

mj

macdafunk · #3 08-31-2005, 05:33 PM

i don't like this at all. even if the other big stack folds to your all in, you are not getting the correct odds to play.
also, villian could have hit the flop hard and just called so you would come along. or he hit something, thinks you are making a move and calls b/c the pot is so big.

#4 08-31-2005, 05:36 PM

It seems like the button had to make this move with a good pocket pair, what else would he risk almost half of his stack with PF. UTG probably has a decent hand too, at least two overs with a pocket pair as a likely holding. It seems like you are only drawing to four outs here. I'm almost sure that if you pair your 10 you're still no good. There is no side pot out there for you to get, so the only way to win is to hit one of your four outs. I don't think I like it. You've probably been at this longer than I, so let me know if I'm missing something.

AZK · #5 08-31-2005, 05:38 PM

I don't do math, so I don't know how often I need to get villain to fold, but assuming he does fold, I'm getting 780:180, no like?

macdafunk · #6 08-31-2005, 05:43 PM

Pot is giving 4.3 to 1
4 outs / 2 cards is giving 5 to 1

you do get big metagame points though.

AZK · #7 08-31-2005, 05:49 PM

I know those odds, I was talking about % of time UTG needs to fold. I had 1 diamond on board too, so I could go runner runner flush. Plus I don't feel so bad if button has AK...sometimes short stacks turn over the weirdest things

macdafunk · #8 08-31-2005, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know those odds, I was talking about % of time UTG needs to fold. I had 1 diamond on board too, so I could go runner runner flush. Plus I don't feel so bad if button has AK...sometimes short stacks turn over the weirdest things

[/ QUOTE ]

oh that math, me neither. sorry for my mistake. but... i don't think this play makes money even if UTG folds every time against short stacks range of hands. i cannot prove this though.

not_da_nizzles · #9 08-31-2005, 06:00 PM

Here's proof ....

There's $795 in the pot. Assuming you have only 4 outs to beat button you're 16% to win.

.16($795) = $127

84% of the time you lose your $180;

.84($180) = $151

For a total negative expectation of $24. This is assuming that UTG folds every time.

mj

macdafunk · #10 08-31-2005, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Here's proof ....

There's $795 in the pot. Assuming you have only 4 outs to beat button you're 16% to win.

.16($795) = $127

84% of the time you lose your $180;

.84($180) = $151

For a total negative expectation of $24. This is assuming that UTG folds every time.

mj

[/ QUOTE ]

it's a little closer than this b/c short stack could have AK, AQ, Axd's, etc.