cutting my loses

[mister]

Hi all,

I'm fairly new to 2+2, and fairly new to mid-high stakes. Find myself playing mostly 5-10 and 8-16, 10 handed.

I have a question on how to cut my loses with this sort of hand:

I raise AK preflop, get called by 4 players that I have no real read on.

Flop is something like

A J 9

I lead out with a bet, and get 3 callers.

turn brings

A J 9 8

this time I bet and someone raises. I find that 90% of the time I'm up against 2 pair, a set, or a straight. Is the correct play to call and see if I can pair up the board, and if I don't, fold ? I just keep paying people off in this situation because I have TPTK.

I imagine the correct play is purely a function of how many bb are in the pot, and that I only need to win once to justify all the bb I will lose on that call on the river when I'm behind. I guess it just feels like I'm not getting bluffed often enough to make those up, but I'll track that more closely.

[DcifrThs]

thats a pretty clear fold in a multiway pot vs. passive players.

you dont know what you're even drawing to and are definately behind here.

fold the turn

=Barron

[JasonP530]

In multiway pots, I would not be paying off the river in this spot unless the opponent was a complete nut or the board pairs. If it pairs, you may get a free showdown occasionally. If you think the opponent has 2 pair, you have to call the turn. Against passive players(who would be worried about you having a set) its probably a fold.

[mister]

In instances where I feel it's very close, and the pot is 12BB for instance on the turn, is it correct to assume that as long as I'm a winner by the river one time in 14 (me and the villain each put in 1 bb on the river), I at least break even on this play ? That's assuming I check and call on the river should I not improve.

[Lestat]

You cut your losses by studying your opponents. Do they call pre-flop raises with AJ,A9,A8,QT,J9,98? Would they cold-call with AK,AQ, or would they have 3-bet? Same with JJ and 99. Do they like to 3-bet these hands pre-flop if they're going to play?

The pot is big enough to call against any two pair save for AJ. But study your opponents. You shouldn't always need to pay off on the river. You shoudn't even need to always call the turn for that matter.

[mister]

Thanks Lestat. I guess in this instance I was without any real kind of read. For sure once pokertracker and my read had been established, I find I can often get away from this hand.

This begs the question, If I'm on the other side of the coin, and all I do is pick up middle pair and a draw, could I maybe bet some people off top pair with a raise ? How often would you attempt that play ?

[Lestat]

Before semi-bluff raising on the turn, you should think there is at least some chance of winning outright. In this case...

After a solid pre-flop raiser follows through with another bet on the turn, he is ALWAYS calling. The only hand he can even remotely consider folding is AK (AQ he calls hoping he has straight outs). So this probably isn't the best time to attempt a semi-bluff raise with something like JT.

[Lestat]

But he never mentions passive players, only players which he has no read on. The only hands he has a clear fold against are AJ, or a set. QT and T7 while possible, aren't likely.

That pot's pretty big to auto-fold, don't you think?