Theories on how online poker is rigged?

[FlFishOn]

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In that case the river card would deviate from what should be dealt at random and with a large enough sample it will be caught.

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Won't be so simple. The difference would be suble and not noticed if only river cards were investigated in isolation.

[Gata Kamsky]

I would like to point out that SAYING "ONLINE POKER" IS RIGGED. Is a very general phrase. How about PARTYPOKER is rigged or PARADISE or so and so. To claim all online poker is rigged is completely ridiculous. If someone can make a claim on a couple of sites being rigged it will bring some legitimacy to their arguements but saying that ONLINE POKER is rigged is just completely stupid. Each site is a different site and uses different methods for generating cards. I have played on pokerstars and it seems much different than party on generating cards. I would not believe pokerstars is rigged but if someone showed me evidence party was rigged I *might* believe it. I'm not saying I would but it would be more believable.

[mbpoker]

It may not be simple but should be possible. For example, in a random shuffle an ace should be dealt on the river with less frequency than 1/13 because if players reach the river it is likely that some aces are in their hands. However, if a river card is selected to help 2 or more remaining players, then this "help card" would often be an ace, and thus the frequency of an ace dealt on the river will be higher in such shuffle than it should be in a random shuffle.

[mbpoker]

Send him an email asking to review Party/Empire hands, or post on RGP with your results. He reads RGP, so it is a better chance he will respond to your post there than here.

I personally doubt that Party or any other major site is rigging their shuffle.

[Gata Kamsky]

If online poker is rigged you can figure it out very simply. You and a friend play heads up on PARTYPOKER or PARADISE since these seem to be the ones you guys mostly think are. Or in fact get a whole group of you guys who want to figure it out. Stay to the river every hand, and then give the money back to everyone. If you play 10000 hands to the river you should be able to get an idea. It should only take a couple of days.

[octop]

mBpoker

an ace should be dealt on the river 1/13th of the time b/c on average an equal ammount of each card will have been dealt

[kem]

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mBpoker

an ace should be dealt on the river 1/13th of the time b/c on average an equal ammount of each card will have been dealt

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That is only true if the river is dealt on every single hand, which it isn't.

Imagine a hand where three players hold a single ace each, and there's an ace on the flop. The probability of an ace on the river is zero. Contrast to a hand where a single player has an ace, and there's an ace on the flop. The remaining players fold, and no river is seen. It's not hard to imagine that the probability of seeing an ace on the river is actually less than 1/13.

[Felix_Nietsche]

The ideal rigged site would have lots of players swapping their money aroung where no one loses big and no one wins big. The winning formula for on-line poker sites is the more players playing the more money that comes in....

Lets take the theory of rake pumping by inflating hands with strategic cards. The max rake per hand is usually $3. Fixing a hand so someone's boat gets beat by a bigger boat might mean the rake increases from $2 to $3. Oooooo big deal!! A ONE DOLLAR INCREASE. Oooooooh!

Now, someone might argue that if you multiply this by millions of hands then this would add up. This is possible but UNLIKELY. Why? Because"

1. If a site overdoes this play to make ONE EXTRA DOLLAR from one hand....people will get wise. To increase rakes by $1,000,000 a month they would have to pull this play a million times a month. 33,333 times a day. Now think about it. Do you think people MIGHT get suspicous if boats are being cracked 33,333 times a day?!
2. If players get their big hands cracked too often, they will get ticked and likely leave the site thinking the site might be rigged.

So how does one rig a site without ticking off your customers? Answer: Feed the fish. Fish are the lifeblood of poker sites. They attact other fish and GOOD players. If software is written so that a fish wins one extra big pot a day, the fish stay longer and the sharks stay longer to feed off the fish. This way the site continues to collect rakes from the sharks *AND* the fish....

If I were to analyze sites for cheating, I would collect data calculating the odds of big hands occuring PER street and comparing it with the actual data... If there is a significant disconnect between the two numbers, then I would be suspicious.

I stopped playing at Empire/Party because the bankroll swings were unlike ANYTHING I experienced. I left with a $500 profit but I just do NOT trust these sites. I DO TRUST Prima and PokerStars...

Also my PokerTracker stat data was TOO perfect for the frequency I received AA/KK. After 22,000 hands I expected the frequency to be close but the numbers were an EXACT match.....

By the way, real brick and mortar casinos have been caught cheating their customers...if it is against their interest to cheat their customers then why have they done this?.... And why can't this on-line sites do the same thing.

Is human nature different in B&M casinos as oppose to on-line casinos? Gaming commissions were created for B&M casinos because some business owner got greedy..... Are the owners of on-line casinos LESS greedy. And by the way, there are no gaming commisions for on-line casinos. And that worries me....

[FlFishOn]

My thoughts almost exactly. I believe that Empire/Party slips the underdog hand a little help roughly 20% of the time. They simply randomly choose a hand to help then run through possible turn or river cards to pull out a favorable outcome. Everything about it is a winner for the site and even if someone discovers this it's easy to change back.

[mbpoker]

Party is planning to go public. Their valuation is in the range of $2B. If somebody will come with a definitive proof that they are rigged, no matter how, they will be dead. Think about massive lawsuits, not just players leaving.

Remember the hands are out there, they can not take them back. It would take incredible stupidity for them to rig. I don't think they do.