value bet river?

[willie24]

5/10 online. SB is an average player. maybe a tiny bit loose and average in terms of aggression.

folded to hero who raises on button with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] k [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

SB calls, BB folds.

flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

he checks, i bet, he calls.

turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check check

river: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

he checks

[cold_cash]

I doubt he's folding a better hand, so I guess the question you have to ask is how often is he calling with a worse one?

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt he's folding a better hand, so I guess the question you have to ask is how often is he calling with a worse one?

[/ QUOTE ]

that is exactly what i'm asking you

[Argus]

Bet the turn. You are much more likely to get called by a worse hand there than on the river. Other ace highs may call the river bet, but most of the time I think you are called on the river it's by a pair, especially if villain checks the river after you checked the turn behind. So check this river.

[fizzleboink]

Check. I don't think he'll call you with any hands that you beat.

The flop was pretty draw heavy and if he hit a draw he would have let you know (and maybe still will if you bet). He won't call a bet if he missed.

If he has a pair he'll call the river becuse you checked the turn and the river obviously didn't help you.

[nut case ace]

You can't bet this because he's calling with any piece of that board. If he had a big ace too i think he would have 3-bet before the flop and that's the only hand that you can beat that might call. Also, even if you do have him beat, a bet gives him the chance to check-raise you with the worst hand forcing you to fold. There are just way too many ways he calls with the best hand and not enough that he calls with the worst hand to make a value bet correct here.

[fizzleboink]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. You are much more likely to get called by a worse hand there than on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup.

[willie24]

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I don't think he'll call you with any hands that you beat

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certainly, many players will call with a high ace here, which appears to be the most likely hand- since just about any low PP is a set or straight.

[ QUOTE ]
The flop was pretty draw heavy and if he hit a draw he would have let you know (and maybe still will if you bet). He won't call a bet if he missed

[/ QUOTE ]

the chances that the SB is drawing to anything besides overcards on this flop are fairly low. he called a raise from the small blind.

[ QUOTE ]
If he has a pair he'll call the river becuse you checked the turn and the river obviously didn't help you.

[/ QUOTE ]

without question

[Yads]

This is not a value bet on the river, it is a value bet on the turn however. Check behind he's not calling with his missed overs.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. You are much more likely to get called by a worse hand there than on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a good point.

against aggressive players, i see a lot of check-raises on this turn with both small pairs and ace high. a LAG will always bluff the river if i check through on the turn, although a strong aggressive player may or may not. (hes more likely to bluff with KQ than bet AQ). but this opponent was not aggressive and betting the turn would have been better.

what play do you like against a LAG and what play do you like against a TAG, both of whom are aware of the steal situation we are in? in particular- do you always bet regardless of opponent, if you do- do you always fold to a check-raise?