Theories on how online poker is rigged?

hackmage · #1 11-19-2004, 12:45 AM

I'm working on a project for my Stats class, and I decided I was going to take a look at those claims of online sites being rigged. Personally I don't believe they are, the casinos have almost nothing to gain by rigging the sites, they win whether you win or lose.

The problem is finding a hypothesis that's fairly testable, so I was looking for the most popular theories the conspiracy theorists have. The other problem is that I can't keep track of the beginning hands because too many will be mucked. Another unknown is how long a player has been playing on the site, which seems to be a leading theory, the cards always fall for the newbs.

So my only thought is to record flops, and see if there is a substantial amount of low cards. That is when compared, to a completely random generation of flops using Minitab. The idea behind this is that beginning players play too many hands, and thus to help them out sites would give them more low cards on the flop, thus increasing their chances to flop a pair. This won't take into account whether they win or not, but just that new players maybe enticed to keep playing those low cards, thus reinforcing bad play. That's the only theory I could think of that would actually be testable. Any input would be greatly appreciated.

Matt

pshreck · #2 11-19-2004, 12:53 AM

The only logical theory is that sites 'juice' the preflop hands and flops to encourage more betting and therefore more rake. They could do this in SNG's too, to ensure it ends quicker than it should (they would make more money per hour).

While just about all intelligent online players think this is highly unlikely, I think this would be where you should start with doing some tests.

Check how often multiple players are getting high PP (JJ and up) at the same time preflop, vs how often it should happen mathematically. Think in this manner and you could do some good testing.... however I think it will be a waste of your time and you will just confirm the random number generators are working fine.

hackmage · #3 11-19-2004, 01:12 AM

Yea, I'd love to test the PP idea, but once again it comes down to a muck problem, I won't always be able to see starting hands. Seriously, I have NO DOUBT this will be a waste of my time, in fact I'm 99% certain I'll just show the RNGs are working right, but that's the idea of statistics. I want to see just how "right" I am. And thanks both of you for the replies.

Matt

Eratosthenes · #4 11-19-2004, 10:52 AM

Hi Matt--

To test the PP theory you need to see an unbiased sample of starting hands. Starting hands that are shown down will not be an unbiased sample. One way to get an unbiased sample of starting hands would be to get a few of 2+2ers to query their PokerTracker databases and send you the result. Only 2+2ers who have Access of Query could do this and I don't know how many would want to play anyway.

have fun

climber · #5 11-19-2004, 12:12 PM

I think the bigger problem is you are providing no incentive for anyone to undertake this large project. What exactly would you do with any type of "results" you discover?

The only possible possible incentive would be to gather a large database--but most people won't give theirs out and its pretty easy to harvest your own.

Yads · #6 11-19-2004, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yea, I'd love to test the PP idea, but once again it comes down to a muck problem, I won't always be able to see starting hands. Seriously, I have NO DOUBT this will be a waste of my time, in fact I'm 99% certain I'll just show the RNGs are working right, but that's the idea of statistics. I want to see just how "right" I am. And thanks both of you for the replies.

Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not get all of the people with PT to send you their personal hold cards in their history. I'm sure you'll easily get a million hold card histories, then you can see if some hold card combinations occur at an irregular rate.

lorinda · #7 11-19-2004, 12:55 AM

FAQ

The "Rigged" part of this might start you off, there are links to hole cards, past cheats and finishing hands in there.

Lori

IggyWH · #8 11-19-2004, 01:16 AM

Been a little while since I read Lori's FAQ so I don't know if it's in there...

I do remember someone creating a program that checks starting hands and compares them to true odds to compare whether you had a good/bad session. Might want to try something along those lines...

lorinda · #9 11-19-2004, 01:18 AM

I think that's Eastbay's own personal program, don't think there is a released version or anything.

Lori

IggyWH · #10 11-19-2004, 01:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think that's Eastbay's own personal program, don't think there is a released version or anything.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I downloaded something on some post but couldn't get it to work because it was missing a DLL. I then said eff it then. I'll dig through my IE history to see if I can find the thread because search hasn't done me any good.