Monday mlb action

[whipsaw]

Only a few games on Monday, but one play I really like.

Toronto at +129 vs. Boston

Seriously, +129 with this pitching matchup? Arroyo hasn't won a road start since early July, and his overall road numbers are mediocre on the year. His ERA and WHIP are also weak over his last three starts. Ted Lilly is no Cy Young candidate, but he has been pretty good at home this year, going 7-3 with an ERA over a run lower than his overall. He schooled Boston over 6+ last time out against them. In fact, he's pitched against them three times this year and Toronto has won all three of those games (with Lilly giving up only 3 ER in over 17 IP and earning two wins). Boston has arguably the worst road bullpen in the majors. I think this is a huge play.

Good luck if you follow me with this play. Fade at will. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[AlexMR]

Yes, I think this is a very good one. What do you think of Houston? I think it s a very good one also.

[charmy]

Is this how you win in baseball handicapping in the long run by betting with the underdog when there is a pitching mismatch? I have confirmed your facts. It does look like a good play.

[MHoydilla]

Im on:
Tor +129
Tor -1.5 +230

Added the Reverse Runline at a little better price (Pinnacle)

[bigfishead]

I like the Tor bet too. They are a better team than they show.

But, I have decided there is 1 bet I will make every day thru the rest of the season. 18 games left? SF Giants. I dont care what the price is. I think the return of Bonds will have a big impact. SF is 175 games over 500 ball when Bonds plays since he joined the team from Pittsburgh. Slightly under 500 when he didnt play. My goal is to be up 10 units on this stretch. Hence I will push more with the right pitching matchups/team matchups. My HR prediction? 5-7. Walks? 18-22. AVG..hmmm...300-310. Call me a fool, but Bonds IMO, is the type of rare player that can miss as many at bats as he has and return with just as much of an impact to the outlook of a game as he had before.

Oh and to all those that said "NO WAY Bonds will start", last week when the first threats of his return came about.
He IS starting Monday.

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this how you win in baseball handicapping in the long run by betting with the underdog when there is a pitching mismatch? I have confirmed your facts. It does look like a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll let mrbaseball go into the diatribe about finding value in mlb, but generally you look for situations where one team is getting a more favorable line than their true odds to win the game. This is generally underdogs, often on the road, because favorites tend to get overbet which pushes the line too far in the dog's favor. This means you can have a win rate well under 50% and still be rolling in it by betting the mlb (such as fading the Yanks this season).

[whipsaw]

Colorado is a nice play today as well, although not as highly rated as Toronto.

Jeff Francis has been mediocre lately, although his last 3 have been better than the previous four. However, he has pitched well against LAD this season (4 ER in 13 innings), although both starts were in Colorado. Jeff Weaver has been atrocious in his last two starts, as well as against Colorado all year. He got boatraced in Colorado just a week and a half ago, and his ERA against them this year is over seven (edit: originally said nine, but I missed a fourth start). Both teams have been playing mediocre ball over the last ten games. I don't see much pushing this off of a coinflip, so getting COL at +156 is a nice price IMHO. Thoughts?

[mrbaseball]

I like Jays here too. Both guys have been mediocre but Lilly has saved his best for Bosox in earlier meetings and he has more help behind in the pen. Still deciding on Col and will look deeper at it this afternoon.

If Lily didn't pitch poorly in his only start since coming off the dl then i'd jump on this. Lily has owned the sox this season with a 1.53 era. The Blue Jays are also Boston's achillies heel.

[Bill C]

I'm gonna pass on Lilly. I have regarded Arroyo as a "go-against" guy all year, but he's actually shown some improvement of late.

When Lilly went to the sidelines for an extended rest, it was with a sore shoulder. I note in this AM's paper (LVRJ) "He (Lilly) experienced shoulder tightness in his previous outing last Tuesday."

Maybe he's gonna give you a solid 8 innings of good pitching. Maybe he isn't going to be able to overcome his injury.

I hope you guys win with him, and I hope this isn't a one inning, season-ending start. But not for my dough.

Just my $.02 worth...

bc