MLB betting.

[AlexMR]

Hi all,

this is my first post in this section.

When I was in the Probability course in college, I had to do some research to show and explain to the class EV, with real life data and results. I decided to research about the MLB betting in the sportsbettting agencies in the Dominican Republic (where I live). Maybe I did something wrong, but just analizing data, I got to the point where I saw there were practically no edges.

Now I am reading this section of the forum (I am in NL holdem player) because a friend of mine told me he is way ahead betting the games on the MLB. Reading the FAQ I see that in fact MLB along with other sports is considered quite beatable.

My question is the following: What stats should I be looking to come out with "correct" probabilities of a team beating the other and compare that to the odds being offered by the sportsbetting books on the internet?

When I did my research I remember I analized starting pitchers ERA (total and last 3-5games), opponents BAVG, stadium factors, day/night factors, runs/9, hits/9, WHHIP and even standard deviation of both starting pitchers and try to come up with the most likely amount of runs each team would do. I can only remeber finding two small edges in a couple games and both were on the amount of runs by both teams. I analized more than 60games.

Right now, I am almost sure I did some things wrong, because it seems there are a lot of winners on this forum.

Is there anything else that needs to be done? I know the more stats you have in the analisis the more accurate they will be, but how many factors do you see when calculating this odds? Does anyone gives this mathemathical approach to sportbetting,as to calculate the most likely amount of runs a team is going to have in a particular game?

Sorry for the long post and for the terminology if it is not correct. As I said, I am new to this.

All commetns appreciated.

AlexMR.