Horse racing

[Double Down]

A friend is taking me to the track tomorrow for the first time for my birthday. I don't know ANYTHING about horse racing! Any pointers? I hear that it's beatable, I assume I won't be that knowledgeable by tomorrow, but any pointers so that I at least don't lose my money too quickly?

[playersare]

these PDF primers from Daily Racing Form are pretty good.

http://drf.com/misc/free-info.html

HA at the track is about 20%. It's very difficult for even very knowledgeable people to beat.

My advice: you can cheer your horse just as loudly if you bet $2 as if you bet $50.

[Runner Runner]

Just bridge jump the show pool, easy money. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[SheetWise]

Bet the morning line favorite in the last race to win. It won't win any more than expected, but it will pay more.

Many many years ago I would make this bet every morning at every track the book covered, and it does make money. It's not great advice for a single day at the races -- but it's something. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[beset7]

The few horse handicappers i know who make any money at make a combination of straight wagers or exotic bets when they find a group of races with overlays. With the takeout being 20% of the pool I'd say its a tough rake to beat though not unbeatable. I just like to make $2 wagers on longshots that look frisky and ready to race. I think for all but the most knowledgable the ponies should be played just for entertainment value.

Just my opinion.

[cnlkf]

Horse racing IS beatable for the same reasons that poker is. It is much harder to beat because of a higher rake and the fact that it takes a lot longer to get good at than poker.

A couple of tips for a first timer:

1. WIN bets only. The takeout (rake) is the lowest on win, place and show bets. Place and show bets have a higher effective takeout because the insidious breakage has a larger effect on these smaller payouts.

2. The best way to learn how to handicap horses and make at least somewhat rational bets your first time is just use a very few handicapping basics to narrow down the field and then just choose between the remaining contenders by whatever random factor you like.

The very few basic factors:

1. Speed/class. You want to eliminate horses that aren't fast enough. If you use the Daily Racing Form you can just look at the Beyer Speed Figures and stick with horses within 5 points of the "fastest" horse in the race. If you just have the track program, the class the horse has been facing is at least some sort of approximation of speed. 10k claimers are slower than 20k claimers. When in doubt about the relative class of a particular race just look at the purse.

2. Distance. The vast majority of horses have a very limited range of distances they are good at. You want horses that are proven at today's distance. There are plenty of exceptions to this rule, but going against is like playing suited connectors - its best to forget about it until you have the experience to identify the right situations.

3. Jockey/trainer. Good jocks and trainers win a lot more races than bad ones. That jockey with a 5% win percentage is VERY likely to do something stupid and get the horse beat. Low percentage trainers are unlikely to have the horse ready to run his best.

4. Post position. The vast majority of the time inside is good, outside (8 or 9+) bad. To use another bad poker analogy - it takes a stronger hand (horse) to play in early position (outside post).

All decent tracks have an explanation of the past performances in their program. It really only takes 5 minutes or less to find the few things mentioned above in the past performances by checking this explanation.

[beset7]

Nice post.

Just to clarify, I said horse betting is beatable just very difficult. I spent some time learning to handicap and at some point I realized how much of achievement it would be to just beat the takeout, much less make any money. I'm very impressed by the two or three good horse race cappers I know.

My father was a jockey (thoroughbreds, mainly). My little bit of advice is to go to the paddock and look at the horses you wish to play. If he takes a dump in the paddock area that generally means he is nervous. Thats no joke either. My father told me he hated riding horses in that condition , as he never knew how they would react. They should also be interested in running, and the way to tell is to watch how his ears react when he first gets on the track. If he is alert, his ears will be upright, meaning he is eager to race. Just som food for thought, and good luck becomng a BDHP (Broken Down Horse Player).