How often is this a set?

#1 12-03-2005, 05:37 PM

Villain 18/5/2.5 about 150 hands

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, SB raises, UTG+1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Spartan1983 · #2 12-03-2005, 06:03 PM

SB special, could be 2 4. 2 pair more often obviously than a set.

#3 12-03-2005, 07:13 PM

I say it's 2 pair and less often a set. Either way you're beat and I think folding is correct. NH

Harv72b · #4 12-03-2005, 07:17 PM

18/5 isn't calling a PFR from the small blind with 24s. And he's not calling two cold on the flop with a gutshot, either.

But what set could he have? I can't imagine him not reraising preflop with AA or KK, nor do I think he's calling 2 bets on that flop with 33. So he'd really have to be holding exactly 55 to have a set here. Possible.

What I definitely can't see is him calling two on the flop and then check/raising the turn with a hand you beat. Whether it's a set of fives, AK (I can see an 18/5 coldcalling preflop with AK when out of position), or at the least a better ace than you've got. I like your fold to the turn raise.

#5 12-03-2005, 07:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
18/5 isn't calling a PFR from the small blind with 24s. And he's not calling two cold on the flop with a gutshot, either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good stuff. I forgot about the numbers w/my first reply. I think opponent could easily have AT-AK. Fold is still good.

cab4656 · #6 12-03-2005, 08:53 PM

I get very scared when a player like SB cold calls there. Since the board isn't that drawy, might it be best to check through on the turn?

#7 12-03-2005, 11:19 PM

Once upon a time I called this down. Now I fold like you did. I think I'm doing the right thing now.

#8 12-04-2005, 07:05 AM

I'm calling this down a lot of the time -- and I think it's a big leak of mine. I'm commiting to folding this much more often as of right now. This is a better A too often.

One thing I'd really want to know, however, is what kind of player is UTG+1? Is he a bit of a maniac that SB has seen you trying to isolate? You can get some weird PF calls from someone who wants to see a flop in the small blind in that kind of situation. The raises from SB/BB are easier to narrow down to a predictable hand range; the cold calls can be a bit fluky.

With that rainbow completing turn, you're SOL as far as even adding a semi-bluff raise to the balance as a reason to call down. Better A, up to 2 pair. It's not a set. Good fold.