calculating the equity in Drew's Article (More Reading Hands)

[oreogod]

Im just going to come out an say it, I suck at calculating EV/Equity. I can count combos, give u weighed outs, tell u how many suited combos are in a deck, etc...but I suck at taking the info below and plugging it into a forumla that works...actually I should say, I have trouble taking the info below, translating it into numbers and then plugging them into the forumla in such a way that it works. So Im asking for your help. Im a little fuzzy here.

It is for Hand 2. Posted below.

Be gentle.


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mple No. 2: This second hand was also in a $20-$40 game, this time at the Mirage in Las Vegas. I folded this hand, but it's interesting to look at from the perspective of the player under the gun (UTG) who raised with

T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A tight, very good, very aggressive player next to act reraised. Everyone folded around to the big blind (BB) who called. The BB is very loose and fairly aggressive. He's a decent thinker, but he loves to "gamble it up." He will push strong draws and marginal hands, but he can recognize when it becomes clear that he's behind. UTG called. Three people saw the flop of
K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The BB bet out, and UTG raised with his set of tens. The solid player 3-bet, and the BB called without hesitating. UTG 4-bet, and the solid player capped it at five bets. BB and UTG called.

The turn was the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. BB checked. UTG checked. The solid player bet. The BB now check-raised. What should UTG's play have been? What did his opponents likely have? Including the bets on this street, your immediate odds are 16-to-2, but your effective odds are much worse — you will likely need to pay more than three big bets to see a showdown.

The solid player almost certainly has one of three hands: AA, KK, or AK. There are three ways he can have aces, three ways he can have kings, and nine ways for ace-king, but his cap on the flop makes it more likely that he has kings or aces than ace-king, although ace-king is still possible. Now, the most likely hands for BB are queen-jack suited and a pair of fours, with queen-jack suited being much more likely. Because it's not the purpose of this article, I won't get into the math (although it would be a good exercise for the reader to do: Estimate the likelihood of each specific hand for your opponents and calculate UTG's equity in the pot, then determine the EV of calling), but UTG should fold and would lose quite a bit if he called down.

As you can see from these examples, the ability to read hands can allow a good player to make calls with marginal hands confidently on scary boards and to save several bets in large pots with hands that appear great.

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